06-16-25 Commission Workshop Agenda
City of Atlantic Beach
Agenda
Commission Workshop
Monday, June 16, 2025 - 6:00 p.m.
City Hall, Commission Chamber
800 Seminole Road, Atlantic Beach, FL 32233
Invocation and Pledge of Allegiance
Page(s)
1. CALL TO ORDER
2. UPDATES TO THE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION PLAN
COAB Coastal Vulnerability Assessment - Draft
COAB Adaptation Plan - Draft
3 - 102
3. PUBLIC COMMENT
4. ADJOURNMENT
This meeting will be live-streamed and videotaped. The video recording will be posted within
four business days on the City's website. To access live or recorded videos, visit
www.coab.us/live.
Any person wishing to speak to the City Commission on any matter at this meeting should
submit a request to the City Clerk. For your convenience, forms for this purpose are available
at the entrance to the Commission Chamber.
In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act and Section 286.26, Florida Statutes,
persons with disabilities needing special accommodation to participate in this meeting should
contact the City Clerk’s Office at (904) 247-5821 or at City Hall, 800 Seminole Road, Atlantic
Beach, FL 32233, no later than 5:00 PM on the Thursday prior to the meeting.
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Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
Update
Planning & Community Development Department
800 Seminole Road
Atlantic Beach, FL 32233
June 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary 1
Introduction 1-1
1.1 Overview 1-1
1.2 Coastal Resiliency Planning in Florida 1-2
1.3 About this Project 1-3
1.4 Scope of the Vulnerability Assessment 1-4
Methodology 2-1
2.1 General Methodology 2-1
2.2 Sea Level Rise Projections 2-2
2.3 Nuisance Flooding 2-6
2.4 Future Flood Risk 2-7
2.4.1 Storm Surge Modeling 2-7
2.4.2 Stormwater Inundation Modeling 2-10
2.4.3 Combined Inundation 2-12
Exposure Analysis 3-1
3.1 Projected Extents of Nuisance Flooding 3-1
3.2 Projected 100-Year Event Storm Surge 3-1
3.3 Projected Rainfall Induced Flooding 3-1
Sensitivity Analysis 4-22
4.1 Properties and Buildings 4-22
4.2 Critical Facilities 4-23
4.2.1 Critical Facilities Inventory 4-23
4.2.2 Critical Facilities Sensitivity Analysis 4-26
4.2.3 Summary of Critical Facilities Vulnerability 4-27
Next Steps 5-1
5.1 Adaptation Planning 5-1
References 6-1
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Appendices
Appendix A – Coastal Flooding Assessment – Applied Technology & Management, Inc.
(2019)
Appendix B – Vulnerability Assessment Tech Memo – Jones Edmunds & Associates
(2019)
Appendix C – Future 100-Yr Flood Risk Maps
Appendix D – Sensitivity Analysis Tables and Figures
Appendix E – Critical Asset Sensitivity Analysis for Tidal Flooding
Appendix F – Critical Asset Sensitivity Analysis for Rainfall-Induced Flooding
Appendix G – Critical Asset Sensitivity Analysis for Surge Flooding
List of Tables
Table 2-1 Matrix of Evaluated Flood Scenarios ....................................................................... 2-2
Table 2-2 Projected Future Mean Sea Levels - Mayport Bar Pilot's Dock (NAVD88) ............... 2-3
Table 2-3 Summary of Surge Elevation Ranges...................................................................... 2-8
Table 2-4 Existing Conditions Rainfall Depths ....................................................................... 2-11
Table 2-5 Rainfall Change Factors and Future Conditions Rainfall Depths ........................... 2-11
Table 4-1 Vulnerability of Property ........................................................................................ 4-22
Table 4-2 Critical and Regional Significant Assets by Type ................................................... 4-25
Table 4-3 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Tidal Flooding Scenarios ............ 4-1
Table 4-4 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Rainfall Flooding Scenarios ........ 4-2
Table 4-5 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Surge Flooding Scenarios .......... 4-3
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 – Atlantic Beach Zoning Map (Updated in 2023) .................................................... 1-1
Figure 1-2 – Global Average Sea Level Change (US Global Change Research Program) ...... 1-3
Figure 1-3 – Relative Sea Level Rise – Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock (NOAA) .............................. 1-4
Figure 2-1 – Comparison of Projected Sea Level Rise Data Sets at Mayport .......................... 2-3
Figure 2-2 - Hurricane Matthew Water Levels - October 2016 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock ..... 2-4
Figure 2-3 – Hurricane Irma Water Levels - September 2017 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock ...... 2-4
Figure 2-4 – Tropical Storm Nicole Water Levels – November 2022 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock
............................................................................................................................................... 2-5
Figure 2-5 Annual Exceedance Probability Curve - Mayport Bar Pilot's Dock (NOAA) ............ 2-7
Figure 2-6 – Illustration of a Coastal Wave Transect ............................................................... 2-9
Figure 2-7 – Illustration of Coastal Effects of Sea Level Rise .................................................. 2-9
Figure 2-8 – Future Conditions Impervious Update Area (2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update)
............................................................................................................................................. 2-10
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Figure 3-1 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Depth Under Existing Conditions (2025) ............... 3-2
Figure 3-2 High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)3-
3
Figure 3-3 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) . 3-4
Figure 3-4 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)
............................................................................................................................................... 3-5
Figure 3-5 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) . 3-6
Figure 3-6 – 100-Year Storm Surge Flooding Depth Under Existing Conditions (2025) ........... 3-7
Figure 3-7 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions
(2025) ..................................................................................................................................... 3-8
Figure 3-8 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) 3-
9
Figure 3-9 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions
(2025) ................................................................................................................................... 3-10
Figure 3-10 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025)
............................................................................................................................................. 3-11
Figure 3-11 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under Existing
Conditions (2025) .................................................................................................................. 3-12
Figure 3-12 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under Existing
Conditions (2025) .................................................................................................................. 3-13
Figure 3-13 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050
Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025) .............................................................................. 3-14
Figure 3-14 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050
Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) ..................................................................................... 3-15
Figure 3-15 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050
Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025) .............................................................................. 3-16
Figure 3-16 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050
Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) ..................................................................................... 3-17
Figure 3-17 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080
Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025) .............................................................................. 3-18
Figure 3-18 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080
Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) ..................................................................................... 3-19
Figure 3-19 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080
Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025) .............................................................................. 3-20
Figure 3-20 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080
Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025) ..................................................................................... 3-21
Figure 4-1 - Critical Asset Locations ...................................................................................... 4-24
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Executive Summary
In 2019, the City of Atlantic Beach completed its initial Vulnerability Assessment. Since then, state
regulations have been introduced to standardize these assessments, State Statute 380.093 has
clarified reporting requirements, and our modeling capabilities have significantly improved. As a
result, an update to the plan is now necessary.
Sea levels have risen measurably over the years in Atlantic Beach. The question is how will this
rate of sea level rise change in the future and how will it affect us as a City?
To help answer these questions, the City embarked on a study to evaluate the vulnerability of the
City with respect to nuisance flooding and storm induced flooding from sea level rise in the 25-
and 55-year timeframe. This update includes new modeling for the timeframes. This report details
the methodology utilized to develop a statistically based approach to vulnerability from sea level
rise and assessed the vulnerability of critical facilities and infrastructure. The assessment also
included an evaluation of the potential impact to all properties and structures within the city limits.
The results of this effort are series of maps that are essentially future versions of the FEMA Flood
Insurance Rate Maps utilized for planning and building requirements today. The analysis reveals
that there may be significant future impacts from sea level rise in the not so distant future that will
have to be taken into account with respect to planning, development and redevelopment.
This report forms the basis for the next step in planning for the impacts of sea level rise through
development of an adaptation plan. The adaptation plan will consider policies, planning
measures, future projects, etc. to help adapt to and mitigate for impacts to vulnerable areas of the
City.
This project was made possible by a Resilient Florida Grant Program (RFGP) provided by the
Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s (FDEP) Resilient Coastlines program and a
Community Development Block Grant Mitigation Program provided by the Department of
Commerce.
The following City of Atlantic Beach staff provided content:
Steve Swann; P.E., City Engineer
Amanda Askew; AICP, Neighborhoods Department Director
Abrielle Genest, Principal Planner and Environmental Coordinator
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Introduction
1.1 Overview
The City of Atlantic Beach is one of three small coastal communities in northeast Florida that
make up the “Beaches” of Jacksonville. The City consists of three square miles with a population
of approximately 14,000, is located between two miles of Atlantic Ocean beachfront on the east
and the expansive marsh and estuarine environment of the San Pablo Creek / Atlantic Intracoastal
Waterway (AICW) on the west. Atlantic Beach is a near fully-developed municipality where the
predominant land use is residential consisting of stable and well-established neighborhoods.
Figure 1-1 – Atlantic Beach Zoning Map (Updated in 2023)
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Atlantic Beach contains two commercial corridors: the north side of Atlantic Boulevard (SR10)
extending from the ocean westerly to the AICW, and Mayport Road (SR A1A), extending from
Atlantic Boulevard northerly to the municipal limits of the City at Dutton Island Road.
The City possesses a unique character and “personality” where a high quality of life, diverse
recreational activities, preservation of community character and protection of natural resources
are priorities to both residents and elected officials. Since the City is near full build out, current
development consists of redevelopment and scattered infill. In 2019, City staff began observing
the development of lots that were historically untouched primarily due to low lying topography and
proximity to the 100-year floodplain. This trend has continued and is likely due to a lack of
undeveloped land and the continued attractiveness of the area.
1.2 Coastal Resiliency Planning in Florida
Scientists from around the world have been studying climate change and the resulting sea level
rise impacts for decades. Today, multiple sources of data are available to predict realistic
scenarios of future sea levels and their impacts on coastal communities. Some cities, such as
Miami, are already seeing impacts from sea level changes prompting immediate adaptation
measures.
The state of Florida began their first organized adaptation planning efforts in 2009 which led to
the Community Planning Act (CPA) in 2011. The CPA gave local governments the option to create
adaptation plans. However, the state did not require municipalities to address sea level rise until
2015 when the “Peril of Flood” statute was passed which forced municipalities to address sea
level rise in their comprehensive plans. Atlantic Beach incorporated “Peril of Flood” amendments
in to its comprehensive plan in 2019.
In 2018, recognizing the need for coastal communities to assess potential impacts from sea level
rise, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s Resilient Coastlines Program awarded
its 16 resiliency planning grants to coastal communities including Atlantic Beach, resulting in the
2019 Coastal Vulnerability Assessment. The purpose of Atlantic Beach’s grant was to provide
funding for planning purposes to help prepare our community for current and future effects of
rising sea levels, initially through the preparation of this Vulnerability Assessment. To incorporate
all of COAB’s public utility assets, the VA was revised in 2021 to add the area located between
Wonderwood Drive and AB city limits.
In the 2022 Florida Statute Section 380.093 update, specific data collection standards for all
Vulnerability Assessments were established. Some of these standards include identifying critical
community infrastructure and assets that are vulnerable to flooding under existing and projected
future conditions and utilizing the NOAA 2022 intermediate low and intermediate sea-level rise
projections for the 2050 and 2080 planning horizons. COAB has completed this update to satisfy
the statute, to leverage additional grant funding, and as part of its continuing efforts to become a
more resilient community.
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1.3 About this Project
On average globally, the sea level has risen by about 8 inches since scientific record keeping
began in 1880. This rate has increased in recent decades to a little more than an inch per decade.
Global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches (about 16–21 cm) since 1900, with about
3 of those inches occurring since 1993. In addition to the global average sea level rise, local sea
level rise – sometimes called “relative sea level rise” – happens at different rates in different
places. Local sea level rise is affected by the global sea level rise, but also by local land motions,
and the effects of tides, currents, and winds.
Figure 1-2 shows an increase in global average sea level since 1880, in inches. Note that the
blue line, tide gauge data, becomes steeper in more recent decades. This indicates an increasing
rate of change. The surrounding light blue-shaded area shows upper and lower 95% confidence
intervals and the orange line shows sea level as measured by satellites for comparison (1993-
2016). (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)
As sea levels have risen, the incidence of nuisance flooding or “sunny day” flooding during spring
tide events at certain times of the year have increased five to ten fold since the 1960s in several
U.S. coastal cities and rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.
In Atlantic Beach, nuisance flooding resulting in overtopped roads is occurring now in areas of
Atlantic Beach such as Dutton Island Road and West Plaza.
Figure 1-2 – Global Average Sea Level Change (US Global Change Research Program)
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The closest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) primary tidal gauge to
Atlantic Beach is located at the Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock (NOAA tide gauge No. 8720218) near
the ferry slip. Figure 1-3 depicts the relative change in sea level at the Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock
over the 90-year history of this station. The current local rate of sea level change is approximately
one-inch every decade. (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/)
Figure 1-3 – Relative Sea Level Rise – Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock (NOAA)
Although there is uncertainty relating to the change in rate of sea level rise, there is no uncertainty
that sea level is rising in our area. As sea levels rise, incidents of nuisance flooding will increase
and flooding due to severe weather events will affect larger areas of the City. To aid in both
planning and assessing the City’s potential vulnerability under future scenarios with higher sea
levels, the City conducted a rigorous technical analysis to determine just what those effects may
be and how they will impact residents and critical infrastructure.
1.4 Scope of the Vulnerability Assessment
The vulnerability assessment is focused on providing a quantitative analysis of property,
infrastructure and habitats within the City’s municipal boundaries under future predicted sea level
scenarios using widely accepted scientific analyses.
To complete the vulnerability assessment update and analyses required to make these
predictions, the City selected Jones Edmunds & Associates, a consulting firm with many years
of local experience as well as experience conducting similar analyses throughout the coastal
areas of the Southeast United States. Their task was to compile the topographical data, critical
and regionally significant asset data, and flood scenario-related data to perform the Vulnerability
Assessment as defined in Section 380.093, Florida Statutes. According to Florida Statutes and
FDEP guidance, the following are requirements for this task:
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• Include all critical assets (e.g. sewage lift stations, schools, evacuation routes, etc.) owned
or maintained by the City of Atlantic Beach (COAB).
• Utilize the most recent publicly available digital elevation model (DEM).
• Ensure Geographic Information System (GIS) data adheres to FDEP’s GIS Data
Standards and data sources are defined in the associated metadata.
• Include the 2022 National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration’s (NOAA)
intermediate-low and intermediate sea-level rise projections for 2050 and 2080.
• Storm-surge data must be equal to or exceed the 100-year return-period for a flood event.
• Identify data gaps where missing or low-quality information may limit the VA’s extent of
reduce the accuracy of the results and rectify any gaps as necessary.
The technical analyses that form the basis of the vulnerability assessment began with the current
Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as
the baseline condition and utilized NOAA 2022 Intermediate-Low and Intermediate Sea Level
Rise (SLR) scenarios for predicted 2050 and 2080 conditions as follows:
• Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) modeling to predict frequency of nuisance flooding
• Storm surge modeling to predict coastal flooding
• Stormwater modeling to predict upland rain induced flooding
• Composite coastal flooding and upland rain induced flood mapping to delineate future
flood hazard areas
• Assessment of property, infrastructure and habitat impacted within flood zones of
composite future flood mapping
MHHW is the higher of the two daily tides averaged over a 19-year tidal epoch. The
methodology is summarized in Section 2 and the results of these analyses are presented in
Sections 3 & 4 of this report. A more detailed description of the methodology is attached in
Appendices A & B.
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Methodology
2.1 General Methodology
For this vulnerability assessment, the baseline is the existing mean higher high water (MHHW)
level and the current FEMA FIRMs for the City. The MHHW level, which is the average of the
higher of each of the two daily high tides, provides an indication of the frequency of sunny day
flooding occurrences due to normal tidal cycles and does not include storm events.
The FIRMs for the City of Atlantic Beach provide a prediction of what the 100-year flood event
water levels will be. While FEMA does not consider sea level rise (SLR) in the development of a
FIRM, they do conduct a rigorous analysis of storm surge flooding and flooding due to upland
inundation from rainfall. FIRMs are currently used to map properties with respect to the 100-year
flood event to set flood insurance premiums as well as to determine where stricter building and
development standards apply for flood protection.
Given the common use of FIRMs for regulatory purposes and general familiarity many people
have with these maps, this vulnerability assessment utilizes the FEMA methodology to predict the
extents of a 100-year flood event in the future considering the effects of SLR. The technical
analyses that serve as the foundation for this vulnerability assessment resulted in essentially
producing maps of what the FIRM may look like in 25 and 55 years considering sea level rise.
The analysis also incorporated the loss of soil storage that may result from rising sea levels as
well as predicted future build-out conditions within the city boundaries.
Surge analyses were conducted for both the Atlantic Ocean side of the City and the Intracoastal
Waterway side of the City utilizing the same methodology FEMA used to develop the FIRMs for
this area. It is important to note that as water depth increase with SLR, there is a corresponding
increase wave heights and wave runup. Hence, the surge analyses being specifically analyzed
with future water level conditions and not just added to the predicted increased sea level height.
Upland rainfall induced flooding was analyzed using the Interconnected Pond Routing (ICPR)
model developed for the City’s 2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update for every drainage basin
within the City. This was a necessary step given the flat topography of the City and impacts of
tide height on the performance of the drainage systems.
Both analyses utilized current conditions as a reference check and used the intermediate-low and
intermediate NOAA 2022 SLR projections. Florida Statue 380.093(3)(d)(3)(c) establishes
planning horizons based on the year of assessment. COAB received FDEP approval to utilize
2050 and 2080 planning horizons for inundation analyses to develop future 100-yr and 500-yr
storm event predictions. Table 2-1 summarizes the flood scenarios that were included in this
assessment. Scenarios highlighted in orange demote the scenarios required by Florida Statutes.
Flood stages were determined for each of these scenarios, and inundation extents/depths were
mapped against the 2018 DEM.
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Table 2-1 Matrix of Evaluated Flood Scenarios
Flooding Type Tidal Flood Days MHHW +2 feet 100-Year 500-Year
Tidal/Sunny-Day Flooding
Existing X X
2050 Intermediate-Low X X
2050 Intermediate X X
2080 Intermediate-Low X X
2080 Intermediate X X
Rainfall-Induced Flooding
Existing X X
2050 Intermediate-Low X X
2050 Intermediate X X
2080 Intermediate-Low X X
2080 Intermediate X X
Storm-Surge Flooding
Existing X
2050 Intermediate-Low X
2050 Intermediate X
2080 Intermediate-Low X
2080 Intermediate X
2.2 Sea Level Rise Projections
COAB lies approximately 3 miles south of the Mayport NOAA SLR gauge. The next closest tide
station is in Fernandina Beach. The mean sea level at the Mayport gauge exceeds the mean sea
level at the Fernandina Beach gauge. Therefore, in accordance with Section 380.093(3)(d)(3)(d),
F.S., this VA applies to the Mayport gauge only to the coastal and Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW)
portions of COAB.
Section 380.093(3)(d)(2), F.S., requires Vulnerability Assessments “make use of the best
available information through the Florida Flood Hub”. The projections that were released by the
Flood Hub at the time of this study did not include the 2080 planning horizon. Based on this, Jones
Edmunds used the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Analysis Tool (SLAT) to
obtain the NOAA 2022 SLR projections for the Mayport Tide Station, which are slightly higher
(approximately 0.1 foot) than the statewide projections. The NOAA 2022 SLR projections from
the Mayport Tide station were used instead of the statewide calculations because they are slightly
higher than the statewide values and the gauge is near COAB. SLR projections for the
intermediate-low and intermediate SLR elevations for 2050 and 2080 were calculated using the
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NOAA 2022 SLR projection curves for the Mayport Tide Station. SLR estimates at this gauge are
presented graphically in Figure 2-1 and in tabular form in Table 2-2.
Figure 2-1 – Comparison of Projected Sea Level Rise Data Sets at Mayport
Table 2-2 Projected Future Mean Sea Levels - Mayport Bar Pilot's Dock (NAVD88)
Planning
Horizon
Projected SLR (feet) MSL Elevation (feet-NAVD88)
Intermediate-
Low
Intermediate Existing Intermediate-
Low
Intermediate
Existing
Conditions
N/A N/A 2.5 N/A N/A
2050 0.61 0.74 N/A 3.11 3.24
2080 1.27 1.96 N/A 3.77 4.46
For comparison, water elevations recorded during Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, Hurricane
Irma in September 2017, and Tropical Storm Nicole in November 2022 are presented below. The
highest water level recorded during Hurricane Matthew was 5.23 feet NAVD88, 5.58 feet NAVD88
during Hurricane Irma and 5.54 feet NAVD88 during Tropical Storm Nicole.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2044 2054 2064 2074 2084 2094 2104 2114Projected Sea Level (ft, NAVD88)NOAA 2017 - Int-High
NOAA 2017 - High
NOAA 2017 - Extreme
CARSWG 2016 - High
CARSWG 2016 - Highest
USACE 2013 - High
USACE 2013 - Int
IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 - Median
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Figure 2-2 - Hurricane Matthew Water Levels - October 2016 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock
Figure 2-3 – Hurricane Irma Water Levels - September 2017 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock
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Figure 2-4 – Tropical Storm Nicole Water Levels – November 2022 at Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock
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2.3 Nuisance Flooding
Nuisance flooding, sometimes referred to as
"sunny day" flooding, is flooding that leads to
public inconveniences such as road closures.
The City currently experiences a limited degree
of nuisance flooding in several locations. As sea
levels continue to rise, nuisance flooding will
become more prevalent and extensive.
For this effort, nuisance flooding is considered to
be occurring when the tide level is approximately
one foot greater than the Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW) level at Mayport. This occurs at
least once every year as can be seen in the
statistical summary presented in Figure 2-6.
This chart indicates that there is 99%
probability of water levels exceeding MHHW
by at least 1’ (0.3 m) on an annual basis.
Similarly, there is a 50% probability of tidal
levels exceeding MHHW by 1.5’ (0.45 m) in
any given year and a 10% probability of tidal
levels exceeding MMHW by 2’ (0.6 m) in any
given year.
The current MHHW level in our area is at
elevation 2’, and based on observations,
nuisance flooding can start to occur when
water levels exceed 3’. Areas of the City that
are at or below 3’ elevation include
the Dutton Island access road and
portions of West Plaza, both areas
that currently experience nuisance
flooding. Given that there is a 99%
probability of water levels of at least 1’
above MHHW occurring on annual
basis as shown on Figure 2-6,
nuisance flooding in portions of
Atlantic Beach is expected to occur at
least once every year at a minimum.
Flooding during king tide at West Plaza - 2020
Flooding at Buccaneer Lift Station - 2021
King Tide Flooding at Dutton Island Rd. W - 2020
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Figure 2-5 Annual Exceedance Probability Curve - Mayport Bar Pilot's Dock (NOAA)
To estimate nuisance flooding in the future, NOAA’s Digital Coast tools were utilized to overlay
one foot of water level on top of the predicted future sea levels over the planning period. As
updated digital elevation models become available, the City will undertake a more rigorous
analysis of the future frequency and extent of nuisance flooding and will update the Vulnerability
Assessment as necessary.
2.4 Future Flood Risk
As sea levels rise there will generally be an increase in flood risk. This increased risk is not
reflected in the current FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for the City. Estimating the
extent of future risk requires updating the FIRMs to account for impacts in both storm surge and
rainfall induced flooding under higher sea level conditions. The following sections describe the
methodology utilized to develop the information required to assess future flood risks for the City.
2.4.1 Storm Surge Modeling
Higher sea levels will result in increased storm surge levels and wave heights and will exacerbate
nuisance flooding from extreme high tides. The combination of a higher sea level with a storm
surge can result in larger storm impacts and coastal vulnerability from a flooding perspective than
are currently experienced.
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FIRMs are updated on a regular basis (typically every 10 years) and FEMA only considers the
existing mean sea level at the time of the update and does not account for SLR. For the
vulnerability assessment, an analysis based on the FEMA flood mapping protocol was conducted
to evaluate coastal flooding and wave risks under projected SLR scenarios for 25, 50 and 100
years.
The storm surge inundation modeling was conducted by ATM using the effective 2018 FEMA
Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Duval County and site-specific modeling using FEMA’s Coastlal
Hazard Analysis and Mapping Program (CHAMP) Version 2.0 model suite, including the FEMA
Wave Height Analysis for Flod Insurance Studies (WHAFIS) overland wave propogation model.
The site-specific modeling was developed by Geosyntec for COAB’s VA that was updated in
2021. The future conditions modeling that was completed in 2021 used NOAA 2017 intermediate-
high SLR projections to project surge flooding fof the 100-year event. For this VA,ATM updated
the site-specific model using the NOAA 2022 intermediate-low and intermediate SLR projections
for the 2050 and 2080 planning horizons.
Also, the storm surge modeling utilized existing FEMA stillwater elevation (SWEL) results (that
don’t include waves) for a 100-year event and increased the elevations to account for the
projected increase in sea levels in the future. The next step required updating wave transect
modeling on top of the increased SWEL elevations to predict 100-year base flood elevations
under future higher sea levels. Figure 2-6 depicts a typical FIRM cross-section and the concept
of SWEL and wave setup on top of the SWEL. Appendix A contains a detailed description of this
approach used in the 2019 Vulnerability Assessment, 2021 revision and this update .
Note that wave modeling is very sensitive to water depth and increased future sea levels will allow
larger waves to travel further inland during storms because there is more area inundated with
higher future SWEL. This is illustrated in Figure 2-7. The result of these analyses were FIRM type
flood maps for future higher sea level scenarios.
Table 2-3 sumarizes the range of storm-surge flood elevations acroos COAB for each of the
storm-surge flooding scenarios.
Table 2-3 Summary of Surge Elevation Ranges
Flood Scenario Surge Elevation Range
(feet NAVD88)
100-Year, Existing Conditions 5.2 to 25.3
100-Year, 2050 Intermediate-Low 5.8 to 25.9
100-Year, 2050 Intermediate 5.9 to 26.0
100-Year, 2080 Intermediate-Low 6.4 to 26.5
100-Year, 2080 Intermediate 7.1 to 27.2
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Figure 2-6 – Illustration of a Coastal Wave Transect
Figure 2-7 – Illustration of Coastal Effects of Sea Level Rise
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2.4.2 Stormwater Inundation Modeling
To determine how rainfall-induced flooding may be impacted by sea level rise and new
development within the City, the hydrologic and hydraulic parameters in the Interconnected Pond
Routing (ICPR) Version 4 models that were developed during the City’s 2018 Stormwater Master
Plan update were adjusted to reflect projected increases in impervious area from future
development, increased boundary conditions and node initial conditions from rising sea levels,
and reduced soil storage from rising sea levels.
The rates of future development that were developed for the City’s 2018 Stormwater Master Plan
update were used to estimate the impervious area in the City in 2050 and 2080. The estimated
future impervious values were applied to the already modeled stormwater drainage basins so that
modeled runoff accurately reflects future conditions. The areas updated for future increases in
impervious area for the 2050 and 2080 conditions are shown in Figure 2-9.
Figure 2-8 – Future Conditions Impervious Update Area (2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update)
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The ground water table is also expected to rise with rising sea levels because of consistently
higher tides. This increase in ground water levels will reduce the amount of soil storage available
for rainfall to infiltrate and will increase the volume of runoff during storm events. The decrease in
soil storage will be more marked in areas directly adjacent to the coastline and will be reduced
further inland. To account for these projected changes, the basin criteria in the stormwater model
were adjusted to decrease soil storage capacity in conjunction with expected future sea level
elevations.
To model and map rainfall-induced flooding, Jones Edmunds collected NOAA Atlas 14 rainfall
data, future conditions rainfall-change factors, and the COAB existing rainfall- induced flooding
model. Peak stage results from the future drainage conditions models were used to map the
predicted rainfall-induced flood risk in the City in 2050 and 2080 for a series of 24-hour rain events
including the 100- and 500-year return period rainfall events. Table 2-4 summarizes the rainfall
depths for each of the storm events. COAB’s model uses the Florida Modified Type II Rainfall
Distribution for this VA.
Table 2-4 Existing Conditions Rainfall Depths
Storm Event Rainfall Depth Range
(inches)
100-Year/24-hour 12.6
500-Year/24-hour 17.3
To model future conditions rainfall-induced flooding, Jones Edmunds collected rainfall change
factors from the Florida International University (FIU) Sea-Level Solutions Center based on the
CORDEX model, which is consistent with the change factors used by the Northeast Florida
Regional Planning Council to conduct their regional vulnerability assessment. Table 2-5 shows
the change factors that were used from the FIU website and the resulting rainfall depth ranges for
the required 2050 and 2080 planning horizons.
Table 2-5 Rainfall Change Factors and Future Conditions Rainfall Depths
Storm Event 2050 Change
Factor
2080 Change
Factor
2050 Rainfall
Depth Range
(inches)
2080 Rainfall
Depth Range
(inches)
100-Year/24-hour 1.27 1.36 16.0 17.1
500-Year/24-hour 1.29 1.39 22.3 24.1
The rainfall-induced flood model was developed by COAB and Jones Edmunds in 2018 using the
modeling software Interconnected Pond Routing Version 4 (ICPR4). The results were then
mapped using the 5-foot-by-5-foot digital elevation model (DEM) generated from the 2007 City of
Jacksonville Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. Section 380.093, F.S., required this VA
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to be performed using the most recent LiDAR dataset. Jones Edmunds compared the DEMs from
the 2007 and 2018 LiDAR datasets to determine if differences between the two would invalidate
parts of the model. The differences in the datasets were generally less than 0.5 foot. Areas where
differences were greater were confined to new developments that occurred between LiDAR
flights. Minimal new developments that were not already accounted for in COAB’s model have
occurred, and none of the new developments have a significant impact on the rainfall-induced
flood modeling. The models will be updated if necessary when newer data is available. See
Appendix B for a detailed description of this modeling approach from the 2019 VA.
2.4.3 Combined Inundation
The future storm surge flood risk maps were then combined with the rainfall induced inundation
maps for the 100-year return period storm for 2050 and 2080. These maps are attached as
Appendix C separately. Where there was overlap between the flood risk mapping, the higher
inundation estimate from the two mapping efforts was selected. These maps provide for a spatial
estimate of future flood risk that will serve as the basis for the vulnerability assessment.
Note that rainfall induced flood risk and coastal surge flood risk are usually evaluated relatively
independently because the two forms of flood risk are neither fully dependent nor fully
independent. Therefore, traditional statistical approaches are not applicable and the standard
procedure to deal with this is to evaluate the two independently using common sea level rise
scenarios and then take the higher of the combined identified risk at each location.
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Exposure Analysis
3.1 Projected Extents of Nuisance Flooding
Figures 3-1 through Figure 3-5 depicts nuisance, or sunny day, flooding that the City may
experience based on anticipated sea level rise. The mapped extent of projected nuisance flooding
is based on the annual probability of experiencing tide levels of at least 2 foot greater than the
MHHW.
Future nuisance flooding is predicted to increase substantially on the western side of the City
adjacent to the Intracoastal Waterway and along Sherman Creek and the Aquatic Gardens
neighborhood. Nuisance flooding seaward of the mapped extents are expected to be more
frequent than an annual event.
3.2 Projected 100-Year Event Storm Surge
Figures 3-6 through 3-10 illustrates the projected extent of the storm surge expected from a 100-
year storm event in Atlantic Beach in 2050 and 2080. Flood depth rasters were developed for
each of the scenarios using the storm-surge flood elevations presented in Section 2.4.1 and the
2018 LiDAR DEM.
3.3 Projected Rainfall Induced Flooding
Figures 3-11 through 3-20 illustrates the projected rainfall induced flooding from a 100-year storm
in Atlantic Beach for years 2050 and 2080. These maps reflect future conditions with increased
impervious surface from development. In addition, stormwater infrastructure performance is
compromised and the water table is elevated due to sea level rise projections. This map is
combined with the projected previous storm surge maps to create the projected 100 Year Future
Flood Zones used in the vulnerability assessment
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Figure 3-1 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Depth Under Existing Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-2 High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-3 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-4 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-5 – High-Tide Nuisance Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-6 – 100-Year Storm Surge Flooding Depth Under Existing Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-7 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-8 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2050 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-9 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate-Low SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-10 – 100-Year Storm-Surge Flooding Under 2080 Intermediate SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-11 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under Existing Conditions
(2025)
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Figure 3-12 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under Existing Conditions
(2025)
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Figure 3-13 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050 Intermediate-Low
SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-14 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050 Intermediate SLR
Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-15 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050 Intermediate-Low
SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-16 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2050 Intermediate SLR
Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-17 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080 Intermediate-Low
SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-18 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 100-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080 Intermediate SLR
Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-19 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080 Intermediate-Low
SLR Conditions (2025)
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Figure 3-20 – Rainfall-Induced Flooding for the 500-Year, 24-Hour Storm Event Under 2080 Intermediate SLR
Conditions (2025)
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Sensitivity Analysis
4.1 Properties and Buildings
Based on the projected impacts of sea level rise, there will likely be additional properties in the
future that will be subject to both nuisance flooding and located within a Special Flood Hazard
Area (SFHA, which is the area inundated by flood waters from a 100-year storm event). Table 4-
1 illustrates the total value of land and buildings impacted for nuisance flooding and storm surge
maps for 2050 and 2080. For the 100-year flood risk assessment, parcels were only counted if
water was projected to reach their center. Counting every parcel touched would have included
beach front parcels which are actually at higher elevations and typically have higher assessed
values. All values are provided in today’s dollar.
Table 4-1 – Vulnerability of Property
2050
Intermediate-
Low
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels
Impacted (% of
All Parcels)
Number of
Buildings on
Impacted
Parcels
Land Value of Impacted
Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 625 (10%) 738 $290,351,970 $269,609,632 $282,169,878
Storm Surge 701 (11%) 803 $234,070,885 $224,527,108 $230,900,463
2050
Intermediate
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels
Impacted (% of
All Parcels)
Number of
Buildings on
Impacted
Parcels
Land Value of Impacted
Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 779 (12%) 667 $303,272,940 $280,466,531 $293,224,628
Storm Surge 776 (12%) 887 $255,644,673 $241,941,745 $248,670,883
2080
Intermediate-
Low
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels Impacted
(% of All Parcels)
Number of Buildings
on Impacted Parcels
Land Value of
Impacted Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 842 (13%) 947 $360,909,500 $326,838,789 $340,582,741
Storm Surge 1,291 (21%) 1,200 $420,541,921 $356,443,699 $365,651,140
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2080
Intermediate
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels Impacted
(% of All Parcels)
Number of Buildings
on Impacted Parcels
Land Value of
Impacted Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 1,276 (20%) 1167 $489,165,039 $424,150,388 $439,807,776
Storm Surge 1,736 (27%) 1,833 $707,341,778 $589,529,782 $605,611,756
Nuisance flooding totals are important because they reflect what is likely to happen at least
annually year. By 2080, nuisance flooding is predicted to impact 13% to 20% of properties in
Atlantic Beach totaling upwards of $439,807,776 in taxable value. In 2080, 21% to 27% of
properties will be impacted by storm surge totaling up to $605,611,756 in taxable value.
Existing development standards in place will help mitigate the impacts from sea level rise on
property up to a certain point. These standards relate to the required minimum finished floor
elevation (FFE) for all new construction that creates a buffer between flood water and living areas.
The City currently requires a minimum finished floor elevation of 8.5 feet above mean sea level
or 2.5 feet above the 100- year flood elevation or base flood elevation (BFE) per Chapter 24, Sec.
24-90(c)(1) of the Land Development Code. However, the buffer provided by FFE standards that
apply today to properties located in a SFHA will be reduced in the future as sea levels rise. Note
that many structures currently located in a SFHA were built before these standards were required
and will experience higher risk unless they are elevated.
4.2 Critical Facilities
4.2.1 Critical Facilities Inventory
The list of 39 critical asset types that are required to be included in Vulnerability Assessments is
defined in Section 380.093, F.S. The asset types are broken into four asset classes:
• Transportation and Evacuation Routes – airports, bridges, bus terminals, ports, major
roadways, marinas, rail facilities, and railroad bridges
• Critical Infrastructure – wastewater treatment facilities and lift stations, stormwater
treatment facilities and pump stations, drinking water facilities, water utility conveyance
systems, electric production and supply facilities, solid and hazardous waste facilities,
military installations, communication facilities, and disaster debris management sites
• Critical Community and Emergency Facilities – schools, colleges and universities,
community centers, correctional facilities, disaster recovery centers, emergency medical
service facilities, hospitals, law enforcement facilities, local government facilities,
logistical staging areas, affordable public housing, risk shelter inventory, and state
government facilities
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• Natural, Cultural, and Historical Resources – conservation lands, parks, shorelines,
surface waters, wetlands, and historical and cultural assets
Critical and regionally significant assets and required background data were assembled from
local, state and federal data sources. Appendix D lists the 349 identified critical assets and
summarizes the asset class, asset type, dataset type, source, and data type. Figure 4-1 shows
the locations of the critical assets. The GIS data for all asset types are stored in a geodatabase
that meets the RFGP GIS Data Standards. Table 4-2 summarizes the number of critical and
regionally significant assets that were identified by asset type.
Figure 4-1 - Critical Asset Locations
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Table 4-2 Critical and Regional Significant Assets by Type
Note that the City’s utility service area extends beyond the city limits to approximately
Wonderwood Drive. Critical infrastructure shown on Figure 4-1 outside of the city limits are all
associated with water and wastewater utility assets.
As required, an elevation was assigned to each of the critical and regionally significant assets.
Where data were available, building assets were assigned finished floor elevations (FFEs) from
site-specific surveys, construction plans, and/or as-builts found on the St. Johns River Water
Management District (SJRWMD) Environmental Resource Permit (ERP) website. Where site-
Asset Type Total Number of Assets
Affordable Public Housing 10
Communication Facilities 4
Community Centers 4
Conservation Lands 5
Disaster Debris Site 3
Disaster Recovery Center 1
Drinking Water Facilities 9
Emergency Operations Center 1
Fire Stations 1
Health Care Facilities 10
Historical and Cultural Assets 2
Law Enforcement Facilities 1
Lift Stations 32
Local Government Facilities 3
Logistical Staging Area 2
Parks 16
Risk Shelter Inventory 1
Roads 83
Schools 5
Shorelines 2
Stormwater Facilities 1
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2
Surface Waters 38
Waste Water Facilities 1
Wetlands 109
Total 346
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specific FFE data were not available, FFEs were estimated using the 2018 LiDAR DEM and the
asset’s building footprint. For assets not associated with buildings (i.e., parks, wetlands, surface
waters, etc.), elevations were assigned based on the lowest DEM elevation within the asset
footprint. Table 4-1 also summarizes the elevation data source(s) used for each asset type.
4.2.2 Critical Facilities Sensitivity Analysis
The purpose of the sensitivity analysis is to measure the impact of flooding on critical and
regionally significant assets, applying the data from the exposure analysis to the inventory of
critical assets. Requirements for this analysis include:
▪ An evaluation of the impact of flood severity on each asset class at each flood scenario with
an assignment of risk level based on the percentage and number of critical assets affected.
▪ A list of critical and regionally significant assets that are impacted by flooding. The list must
be prioritized by area or immediate need and must identify which flood scenario(s) impacts
each asset.
For the Sensitivity Analysis, the results from the Exposure Analysis were compared to the
elevations of the critical and regionally significant assets. Flood depth and/or number of
expected tidal flood days was calculated for each critical asset for every flood scenario. A
sensitivity level (high, medium, low) was assigned to each asset for each scenario based on the
asset type and the depth of flooding or the number of expected tidal flood days. Table 1 in
Appendix D shows the severity levels assigned by critical asset type. Figure 1 through Figure 25
in Appendix D show the sensitivity levels assigned to the critical assets for each flood scenario
from the exposure analysis.
A probability-of-failure/consequence-of-failure based methodology was utilized to rank and
prioritize the vulnerable critical assets. With the sensitivity level assigned for each event as
described above, a weighting factor was developed for the 25 scenarios analyzed. Flood
scenarios that occur sooner and more frequently were assigned a higher weighting factor. Table
2 in Appendix D shows the exposure weighting factors assigned for the 25 scenarios. The
high/medium/low (H/M/L) sensitivity levels were assigned point values of 5/3/1 respectively. The
sensitivity score for each scenario was then multiplied by its respective exposure weighting
factor and the highest scores from the tidal, rainfall, surge, and expected tidal flood days
scenarios were totaled. The totals were then normalized by dividing by 40 to generally put
scores in the 0 to 10 range. This score characterizes the probability of failure for each asset.
To characterize the consequence of failure, weighting factors were developed by asset type.
Each asset type was assigned a flood impact score to characterize the environmental, social,
and economic impacts if that type of asset was flooded and not able to function. To weight
regionally significant assets higher, assets designated as regionally significant were given a
weighting factor of 2.5. Table 3 in Appendix D shows the environmental, social, and economic
impact scores assigned to each asset type.
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The normalized flooding score was then multiplied by the sum of the regional significance score
and the average of the three impact scores. Based on a distribution of the results, those
numeric values were assigned a priority rating of highest, high, medium, low, lowest, or not
vulnerable. Table 4 in Appendix D summarizes the priority ratings assigned by asset type.
Appendix E shows the results of the Sensitivity Analysis by asset for tidal flooding, Appendix F
for rainfall-induced flooding, and Appendix G for surge flooding. The results in the Appendix E,
F, and G are sorted by the final priority rating assignment.
4.2.3 Summary of Critical Facilities Vulnerability
Tables 4-3, 4-4 and 4-5 summarizes the projected vulnerability of critical facilities for Atlantic
Beach for the 2050 and 2080 planning horizons. As depicted in the tables, rainfall flooding poses
the highest risk for critical facilities, to include community centers, emergency operation centers,
fire stations, law enforcements facilities, lift stations, roads, and schools.
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Table 4-3 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Tidal Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type
Total
Number of
Assets
Tidal Flooding Tidal Flood Days
Tidal MHHW+2'
Existing
Conditions
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int-
Low 2050
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int
2050
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int-
Low 2080
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int
2080
Tidal Flood Days
Existing
Tidal Flood
Days Int-Low
2050
Tidal Flood Days
Int 2050
Tidal Flood Days
Int-Low 2080
Tidal Flood Days
Int 2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Conservation Lands 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Historical Cultural Site 1 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lift Stations 33 3% 6% 9% 18% 30% 3% 6% 9% 18% 30%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Parks 16 50% 50% 50% 50% 56% 50% 50% 50% 50% 56%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 0% 0% 1% 7% 16% 0% 0% 1% 7% 16%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 47% 50% 50% 55% 66% 47% 50% 50% 55% 66%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wetlands 109 83% 84% 84% 86% 90% 83% 84% 84% 86% 90% Agenda Item #16 Jun 2025Page 52 of 102
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Table 4-4 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Rainfall Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type Total Number of
Assets
Rainfall Inundation
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR
Existing
Conditions
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR
Existing
Conditions
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2050
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2050
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int
2050
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int
2050
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2080
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2080
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int
2080
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int
2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25%
Conservation Lands 5 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 10% 0% 20% 0% 20%
Historical Cultural Site 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Lift Stations 33 30% 42% 42% 42% 42% 45% 42% 48% 42% 48%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 67% 33% 67%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Parks 16 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 56% 56%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 45% 54% 53% 55% 53% 57% 55% 58% 55% 58%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 100%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 66% 63% 66% 63% 66%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 17%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 33%
Wetlands 109 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% Agenda Item #16 Jun 2025Page 53 of 102
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Table 4-5 Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Surge Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type Total Number of
Assets
Storm Surge Flooding (SWEL)
Storm Surge 100-YR Existing Conditions Storm Surge 100-YR Int-Low 2050 Storm Surge 100-YR Int 2050 Storm Surge 100-YR Int-Low 2080 Storm Surge 100-YR Int 2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Conservation Lands 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Historical Cultural Site 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lift Stations 33 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Parks 16 38% 38% 38% 50% 50%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 13% 20% 24% 34% 47%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 50% 58% 58% 58% 61%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wetlands 109 84% 87% 87% 87% 88%
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Next Steps
5.1 Adaptation Planning
There is good news. The City of Atlantic Beach has time plan for the future and minimize the
negative impacts associated with SLR. The next step is for the City to begin an adaptation
planning process. The adaptation planning process would engage stakeholders to evaluate SLR
predictions and consider what actions, if any, should be taken. The Florida Department of
Economic Development (DEO) has resources available to assist local governments in this
process and multiple communities have already completed their adaptation plans.
DEO describes the following 5 strategies for adaptation planning:
1. Protection - Protection strategies involve "hard" and "soft" structurally defensive measures
to mitigate the impacts of current and future flooding, such as seawalls or beach
renourishment, in order to maintain existing development.
2. Accommodation - Accommodation strategies do not act as a barrier to inundation but rather
alter the design, construction, and use of structures to handle periodic flooding. Examples
include elevating structures and stormwater retrofits that improve drainage or use natural
areas to soak up or store water and runoff (i.e., green infrastructure).
3. Strategic Relocation - Strategic relocation involves the possible relocation of existing
development to safer areas through voluntary or incentivized measures in populated, hazard
prone areas that reduce the intensity of development and/or gradually increase setbacks over
time. Such options usually involve the transition of vulnerable land from private to public
ownership, but may also include other strategies such as transfer of development rights,
purchase of development rights, and rolling easements.
4. Avoidance - Avoidance involves anticipatory actions taken to direct new development away
from vulnerable lands to safer areas. Examples include land conservation, conservation
easements, transfer of development rights, and increased coastal setbacks.
5. Procedural - Procedural strategies aim to generate vulnerability and adaptation information,
increase awareness of vulnerabilities and adaptation options, or incorporate such information
into plans or policies. Examples include vulnerability assessments, community outreach and
education activities, new comprehensive plan language addressing sea level rise, and real
estate disclosures.
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References
2015 Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida, Southeast Florida Regional
Climate Change Compact Sea Level Rise Work Group, 2015
Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, U.S. Global Change
Research Program, 2017
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis
Report, 2014
Adaptation Planning – Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
(http://www.floridajobs.org/community-planning-and-development/programs/community-
planning-table-of-contents/adaptation-planning)
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the U.S., NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-
OPS 083, 2017
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1
National Climate Assessment, 2012
Incorporating Sea Level Changes in Civil Works Programs, USACE Engineer Regulation (ER)
1100-2-8162, 2013
NOAA Tides & Currents – Water Levels (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/)
Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management Report, Coastal Assessment
Regional Scenario Working Group (CARSWG) 2016
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Analysis Tool
(https://www.usace.army.mil/Infrastructure-and-Installation-Resilience/Public-Tools-
Developed-by-USACE/Sea-Level-Change/)
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Phase 1 Adaptation Plan
Planning & Community Development Department
800 Seminole Road
Atlantic Beach, FL 32233
June 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary 1
Background 1-1
1.1 Location and History 1-1
1.2 Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Trend 1-1
1.3 Community Resilience 1-3
1.4 General Adaptation Planning 1-3
1.4.1 Protection 1-3
1.4.2 Accommodation 1-4
1.4.3 Strategic Relocation 1-4
1.4.4 Avoidance 1-4
1.4.5 Procedural 1-4
Legal Context 2-1
2.1 Comprehensive Planning 2-1
2.2 Litigation Risk 2-2
Coastal Vulnerability 3-1
3.1 Exposure 3-1
3.2 Sensitivity 3-2
3.3 Ranking 3-2
3.4 Public Input 3-3
3.5 Local Priorities 3-3
Adaptation Strategies 4-1
4.1 Range of Adaptation Strategies 4-1
4.1.1 Reducing Exposure 4-1
4.1.2 Reducing Sensitivity 4-1
4.1.3 Increasing Adaptive Capacity 4-2
4.2 Focus Areas for Adaptation 4-4
4.2.1 Citywide 4-4
4.2.2 Areas West of Mayport Road 4-4
4.2.3 Major Drainageways 4-5
4.2.4 Roadways 4-6
4.2.5 Critical Utility Infrastructure 4-6
4.2.6 Critical Public Facilities 4-6
4.3 Current Strategies and Existing Regulations 4-7
4.3.1 Existing Plans 4-7
4.3.2 Existing Development Regulations 4-7
4.3.3 Current Initiatives 4-8
4.4 Recommended Strategies for Focus Areas 4-9
4.4.1 Citywide 4-9
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4.4.2 Areas West of Mayport Road 4-11
4.4.3 Major Drainageways 4-12
4.4.4 Roadways 4-16
4.4.5 Critical Utility Infrastructure 4-17
4.4.6 Critical Public Facilities 4-18
Recommended Actions 5-1
5.1 Summary of Recommended Actions and Schedule 5-1
5.2 Monitoring and Evaluation 5-3
References 6-1
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Appendices
Appendix A – Inundation Scenarios and Maps
Appendix B – Public Workshop Comments
List of Tables
Table 3-1 – Exposure of Property by Scenario ........................................................................ 3-1
Table 3-2 – Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Tidal Flooding Scenarios ......... 3-1
Table 3-3 –Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Rainfall Flooding Scenarios ...... 3-2
Table 3-4 – Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Surge Flooding Scenarios ....... 3-3
Table 3-5 – Ranking of Exposed Roadway Segments ............................................................. 3-1
Table 4-1 – Comparison of Exposure Reduction Strategies .................................................... 4-1
Table 4-2 – Comparison of Sensitivity Reduction Strategies ................................................... 4-2
Table 5-1 – Summary of Recommendations and Implementation Schedule ............................ 5-1
Table 5-2 – Areas West of Mayport Road Recommended Actions & Schedule ....................... 5-2
Table 5-3 – Major Drainageways Recommended Actions & Schedule .................................... 5-2
Table 5-4 – Roadways Recommended Actions & Schedule .................................................... 5-2
Table 5-5 – Critical Utility Infrastructure .................................................................................. 5-3
Table 5-6 – Critical Public Facilities ......................................................................................... 5-3
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 – Global Change in Sea Levels .............................................................................. 1-2
Figure 1-2 – Sea Level Trends at Mayport Bar Pilots Dock ..................................................... 1-3
Figure 3-1 – Critical Roadway Segment Ranking .................................................................... 3-2
Figure 4-1 – 2044 Nuisance and 100-Year Storm Flooding West of Mayport Road ................. 4-5
Figure 4-2 – Major Drainageways ........................................................................................... 4-6
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Phase 1 Adaptation Plan
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Executive Summary
Coastal communities in Florida are already experiencing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR),
stronger coastal storms, and more intense precipitation events. As sea levels are projected to rise
at an accelerating rate in the coming years and decades, increases in flood frequency and flood
depth in coastal areas are expected, which could lead to increased flood insurance costs, market
value declines, and property damage. As a low-lying coastal community bordering the Atlantic
Ocean on the east and the Intracoastal Waterway to the west, Atlantic Beach is especially
vulnerable to storm surge, rainfall flooding, nuisance flooding, and SLR.
In 2019, Atlantic Beach completed a coastal vulnerability assessment that was updated in 2021
to include the City’s utility service area north of the City within City of Jacksonville city limits. Since
then, state regulations have been introduced to standardize these assessments, State Stute
380.093 has clarified reporting requirements, and our modeling capabilities have significantly
improved, resulting in the 2025 update. In this assessment, projected SLR, nuisance flooding,
and 100-year recurrence interval flood risk areas were modeled for 25- and 55-year future
scenarios. These models were then used to assess potential risks to property, structures, and
infrastructure and to identify focus areas within the City. A vulnerability assessment such as this
is a key step in the adaptation planning process as the findings are used to inform the strategies
discussed in this Plan. Further, a vulnerability assessment fulfills a statutory requirement for
designating Adaptation Action Areas (AAAs) and forms the scientific basis for complying with the
“Peril of Flood” statutory requirement. The next step in the process is to complete an adaptation
plan.
An adaptation plan identifies goals and strategies to best minimize risks and establishes a process
to implement those strategies. Becoming a more resilient community is not a one-time process of
planning and implementing. Rather, it is a continual process that will forever be a part of the City’s
future. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the ultimate
goal of an adaptation plan is to create coastal communities that are organized to take action, have
the tools to take action, and take action to plan for and adapt to the impacts of SLR and climate
change. This Phase 1 Adaptation Plan is the result of the first iteration of the City’s adaptation
planning process. This Plan contains general recommendations for adaptation strategies to be
applied to exposed areas of the City as well as a recommended implementation schedule.
Subsequent iterations of this living document will be completed after solicitation of public input
and will contain additional objective data, more specific strategies, and updated implementation
schedules as appropriate.
This project was made possible by a Resilient Florida Grant Program (RFGP)provided by the
Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s (FDEP) Resilient Coastlines program and a
Community Development Block Grant Mitigation Program provided by the Department of
Commerce. The following City of Atlantic Beach staff provided content along with technical
support from Jones Edmunds & Associates, Inc.:
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Steve Swann; PE, City Engineer
Amanda Askew; AICP, Neighborhoods Department Director
Abrielle Genest, Principal Planner and Environmental Coordinator
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Background
1.1 Location and History
The City of Atlantic Beach is one of three small coastal communities in northeast Florida that
make up the Beaches of Jacksonville. The City is approximately 4 square miles in size with a
population of around 14,000 and is located between the Atlantic Ocean on the east and the San
Pablo Creek/Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AICW) on the west. Atlantic Beach is a near fully -
developed municipality where the predominant land use is residential consisting of stable and
well-established neighborhoods.
As a low-lying coastal community, Atlantic Beach is especially vulnerable to flood risks as
experienced during Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Matthew, Tropical Storm Nicole and the November
2015 Nor’easter. Additionally, most of the City was developed before modern stormwater
regulations for flood protection, which has contributed to flooding issues in the City.
Understanding these existing and potential hazards, the City, with the assistance from the Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Resilient Coastline program, completed a
vulnerability assessment in 2019 and updates in 2021 and 2025, which will inform this Adaptation
Plan.
1.2 Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Trend
Scientists from around the world have been studying climate change and the resulting SLR
impacts for decades. Today, multiple sources of data are available to predict realistic scenarios
of future sea levels and their impacts on coastal communities. These projections are generally
based on global climate models (GCMs) that use assumptions regarding future human behavior
with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. On average globally, the sea level has risen by
approximately 8 inches since scientific recordkeeping began in 1880. This rate has increased in
recent decades to a little more than an inch per decade. Global average sea level has risen by
approximately 7 to 8 inches (16 to 21 cm) since 1900, with around 3 inches occurring since 1993.
In addition to the global average SLR, local SLR – sometimes called relative SLR – happens at
different rates in different places. Local SLR is affected by the global SLR, but also by local land
motions and the effects of tides, currents, and winds.
Figure 1-1 shows an increase in the global average sea level since 1880 in inches. The blue line,
which shows tide-gauge data, becomes steeper in more recent decades. This indicates an
increasing rate of change. The surrounding light-blue shaded area shows upper and lower 95-
percent confidence intervals, and the orange line shows sea level as measured by satellites for
comparison from 1993 through 2020 (US Global Change Research Program, 2017). As sea levels
have risen, the incidence of nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding during spring-tide events at
certain times of the year have increased five- to tenfold since the 1960s in several US coastal
cities, and rates of increase at over 25 long-term gage locations on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts
are accelerating. In Atlantic Beach, nuisance flooding resulting in overtopped roads is occurring
now in areas of Atlantic Beach such as Dutton Island Road and We st Plaza. The closest NOAA
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primary tidal gauge to Atlantic Beach is at the Mayport Bar Pilot’s Dock (NOAA tide gauge No.
8720218) near the ferry slip. Figure 1-2 depicts the relative change in sea level at the Mayport
Bar Pilot’s Dock over the 90-year history of this station. The current local rate of sea-level change
is approximately 1 inch every decade (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/).
Although the rate of change in SLR is uncertain, there is no uncertainty that sea level is rising in
our area. As sea levels rise, incidents of nuisance flooding will increase , and flooding due to
severe weather events will affect larger areas of the City. To aid in planning and assessing the
City’s potential vulnerability under future scenarios with higher sea levels, the City conducted a
rigorous technical analysis to determine what those effects may be and how they will impact
residents and critical infrastructure.
Figure 1-1 – Global Change in Sea Levels
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Figure 1-2 – Sea Level Trends at Mayport Bar Pilots Dock
1.3 Community Resilience
Resiliency is the ability to collaboratively prepare for, prevent, absorb, recover from, and more
equitably adapt for damage from chronic stressors (i.e., aging infrastructure and SLR) and
adverse events (i.e., hurricanes, coastal storms, and flooding). Resiliency in coastal communities
such as Atlantic Beach is especially important due to high population densities and coastal
hazards. A community that is informed and prepared will be more resilient and have a greater
opportunity to rebound quickly after an adverse event.
1.4 General Adaptation Planning
An adaptation plan is a sound and sensible method for Florida’s coastal communities to develop
and enhance their strategies for protecting coastal populations and infrastructure. An adaptation
plan identifies goals and strategies to best minimize risks and establishes a process to implement
those strategies. According to NOAA, the ultimate goal of an adaptation plan is to create coastal
communities that are organized to take action, have the tools to take action, and take action to
plan for and adapt to the impacts of SLR and climate change. A community can select from a
wide range of strategies in the following categories: Protection, Accommodation, Strategic
Relocation, Avoidance, and Procedural.
1.4.1 Protection
Protection strategies involve both hard and soft (gray or green) structurally defensive measures
to mitigate impacts of current and future flooding to maintain existing development. Examples
such as seawalls, revetments, and levees are examples of hard or gray protection strategies,
while examples such as beach renourishment and living shorelines are examples of soft or green
strategies.
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1.4.2 Accommodation
Accommodation strategies do not act as a barrier to inundation but rather alter the design,
construction, and use of structures to handle periodic flooding. Examples include elevating
structures above flood stage and stormwater retrofits that improve drainage or use natural
features to soak up or store water and runoff (i.e., green infrastructure).
1.4.3 Strategic Relocation
Strategic relocation strategies consist of relocating existing development to safer areas through
voluntary or incentivized measures. Examples include redevelopment regulations, home buyout
programs, and rolling easements.
1.4.4 Avoidance
Avoidance strategies involve guiding new development away from vulnerable areas to safer, more
appropriate areas. Such measures include transfer of development rights, land conservation, and
increased setbacks/buffers.
1.4.5 Procedural
Procedural strategies aim to generate vulnerability and adaptation information, increase
awareness of vulnerabilities and adaptation options, or incorporate such information into plans or
policies. Examples include vulnerability assessments, community outr each and education
activities, new comprehensive plan language addressing SLR, and real estate disclosures.
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Legal Context
2.1 Comprehensive Planning
Florida Statutes require every municipality in Florida to maintain a comprehensive plan, which
shall provide the principles, guidelines, standards and strategies for the orderly and balanced
future economic, social, physical, environmental, and fiscal development of the area… (Fla.
Stat. 163.3177(1)). Comprehensive plans contain different elements, some of which are required
by the state including a Future Land Use Element and a Conservation and Coastal Management
Element.
The Future Land Use Element, according to Florida Statute, shall establish the long-term end
toward which land use programs and activities are ultimately directed. This and several additional
statutes provide a solid legal basis for adding to or revising the Goals, Objectives, and Policies of
the Future Land Use Element for adaptation purposes. For example, statutory provisions
discouraging urban sprawl address protecting and conserving natural resources such as
wetlands, beaches, and floodplains.
The Conservation and Coastal Management Element is required by Florida Statute to address
SLR. Senate Bill (SB) 1094, enacted in 2015, requires coastal localities to include a
redevelopment component within this element and specified that the principles, strategies, and
engineering solutions described in the redevelopment component must address flood risk arising
from several sources, including SLR. The redevelopment component is the logical place to include
guidelines and restrictions that do not take effect until they are triggered by an event, such as
flooding of a particular depth. SB 1094’s requirements provide communities with a good reason
to adopt such measures and also with a potent tool for inoculating restrictions on development
against takings claims.
Comprehensive plans must be informed by analysis of relevant and appropriate data, which must
be gathered from professionally accepted sources or generated by the local government so long
as the methodologies for gathering data are professionally accepted. Florida law also requires
that changes to the comprehensive plan must be supported by analysis and that such analysis
must reflect reasonable and proportionate applications of the data cited. Scientific certainty is not
a required feature of supporting data or their analysis. This flexibility means that the City’s Coastal
Vulnerability Assessment will not operate as a floor or ceiling for planning purposes. If the City
refers to the Vulnerability Assessment as supporting particular language or parameters, the City
would only need to articulate a logical link between the Assessment and the action.
Planning timeframes also changed under SB 1094 in 2015 by allowing localities to incorporate
additional planning periods for specific components or projects rather than be limited to the 5- and
10-year periods previously required. This change has vital implications for plans involving assets
or facilities whose useful life exceeds 10 years and whose location makes them vulnerable to
SLR. Local governments can now ensure SLR projections inform their plans for such
infrastructure designs, planning restrictions, and capital investments. The University of Florida’s
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Conservation Clinic drafted model language to ensure adaptation planning employs an
appropriate timeframe:
Policy 1.2.1: [Planning Horizon] Utilize a (__) year planning horizon when considering the
adoption of any protection, accommodation, and managed retreat strategy within the
City/County.
The 2011 Comprehensive Planning Act authorized localities to designate Adaptation Action Areas
(AAAs), which are locations that experience coastal flooding due to extreme high tides and storm
surge and that are vulnerable to the related impacts of rising sea levels. This designation is to
prioritize funding and planning in these vulnerable areas.
2.2 Litigation Risk
As SLR shifts the operations of local government, the result is potentially a double -edged sword
situation regarding litigation risk. If local governments act to address SLR, they could be sued by
property owners claiming injury from limitations on the property’s use or adverse effects to
property values. On the other hand, local governments could also be sued for faili ng to address
SLR.
Takings Law protects private-property owners from government actions that fail to provide them
with just compensation for the condemnation or appropriation of their real property or for
regulations that deprive their real property of all or almost all of its use and economic value. In
Florida, two sources of Takings Law are available: the Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
and the Bert Harris Private Property Rights Protection Act. Takings Law can be complex and
unpredictable in its application to particular cases and the source of highly fact-specific legal
disputes.
Local governments will face challenges legally when implementing particular adaptation
strategies. However, many state and local governments already use a multitude of strategies to
manage development in their communities. By using existing strategies in new ways,
governments may be able to minimize the complexities of adaptation.
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Coastal Vulnerability
Given the location of the City of Atlantic Beach between the AICW and the Atlantic Ocean and its
relatively low elevation, certain areas of the City are particularly vulnerable to SLR. The City of
Atlantic Beach Coastal Vulnerability Assessment was completed in June 2019 and updated in
April 2021 to include City-owned water and wastewater infrastructure outside the City limits and
June 2025 to comply with data standards set in FS 380.093. The Vulnerability Assessment
identified areas of the City that may be subject to increased flooding due to SLR.
The Coastal Vulnerability Assessment also identified assets such as buildings, residences, and
critical infrastructure in these areas that could be impacted. The following sections of this report
describe the exposure of these assets to SLR as well as their sensitivity to this exposure.
3.1 Exposure
For coastal flooding, exposure is defined as the impact to an asset from extreme coastal storm
flooding and nuisance flooding using the SLR scenarios identified in the Coastal Vulnerability
Assessment. Extreme coastal storm flooding in the context of this analysis are 100-year storm
events caused by a temporary increase in water levels due to a combination of high tides, storm
surge, waves, and rainfall. Nuisance flooding is defined as water levels expected at least once
per year that are 1 foot greater than the mean higher high-water level. Appendix A to this Plan
provides maps depicting exposure under these conditions for current and future scenarios.
The coastal flooding analysis completed for the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment included
flooding from storm surge as well as rain-induced flooding for predicted sea levels in 25, 50, and
100 years. The results of this analysis identified the potential exposure of property and critical
infrastructure within the study area to flooding during a 100-year storm event. Table 3-1 provides
the results of the exposure analysis for the 25- and 55-year scenarios.
Table 3-1 – Exposure of Property by Scenario
2050
Intermediate-
Low
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels
Impacted (% of
All Parcels)
Number of
Buildings on
Impacted
Parcels
Land Value of Impacted
Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 625 (10%) 738 $290,351,970 $269,609,632 $282,169,878
Storm Surge 701 (11%) 803 $234,070,885 $224,527,108 $230,900,463
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2050
Intermediate
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels
Impacted (% of
All Parcels)
Number of
Buildings on
Impacted
Parcels
Land Value of Impacted
Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 779 (12%) 667 $303,272,940 $280,466,531 $293,224,628
Storm Surge 776 (12%) 887 $255,644,673 $241,941,745 $248,670,883
2080
Intermediate-
Low
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels Impacted
(% of All Parcels)
Number of Buildings
on Impacted Parcels
Land Value of
Impacted Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 842 (13%) 947 $360,909,500 $326,838,789 $340,582,741
Storm Surge 1,291 (21%) 1,200 $420,541,921 $356,443,699 $365,651,140
2080
Intermediate
Scenarios
Number of
Parcels Impacted
(% of All Parcels)
Number of Buildings
on Impacted Parcels
Land Value of
Impacted Parcels
Building Value of
Impacted Parcels
Taxable Value of
Impacted Parcels
Nuisance
Flooding 1,276 (20%) 1167 $489,165,039 $424,150,388 $439,807,776
Storm Surge 1,736 (27%) 1,833 $707,341,778 $589,529,782 $605,611,756
3.2 Sensitivity
Although the assets discussed above will potentially be exposed to flooding, some will be more
sensitive to exposure than others. In this context, sensitivity is how assets identified in the
exposure analysis respond or function during and after a flood impact. For example, a sewer
pump station can be sensitive to flood waters if the electrical components become inundated,
while a roadway that is flooded is less likely to suffer damage and is therefore less sensitive.
3.3 Ranking
The Coastal Vulnerability Assessment mapped critical assets within the City as well as water and
wastewater assets that the City of Atlantic Beach owns and operates, which are outside the City
limits. Tables 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4 were developed from this mapping data and summarize the
projected vulnerability of critical facilities for the 2050 and 2080 planning horizons.
The degree of exposure of each asset was then combined with a qualitative assessment of the
sensitivity and consequence of flooding of each exposed asset based on considerations unique
to each asset category. The resulting matrix and ranking of critical assets are depicted in
Table 3-5. Figure 3-2 graphically depicts the ranking of each critical roadway section identified in
Table 3-5.
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Table 3-2 – Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Tidal Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type
Total
Number of
Assets
Tidal Flooding Tidal Flood Days
Tidal MHHW+2'
Existing
Conditions
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int-
Low 2050
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int
2050
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int-
Low 2080
Tidal
MHHW+2' Int
2080
Tidal Flood Days
Existing
Tidal Flood
Days Int-Low
2050
Tidal Flood Days
Int 2050
Tidal Flood Days
Int-Low 2080
Tidal Flood Days
Int 2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Conservation Lands 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Historical Cultural Site 1 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lift Stations 33 3% 6% 9% 18% 30% 3% 6% 9% 18% 30%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Parks 16 50% 50% 50% 50% 56% 50% 50% 50% 50% 56%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 0% 0% 1% 7% 16% 0% 0% 1% 7% 16%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 47% 50% 50% 55% 66% 47% 50% 50% 55% 66%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wetlands 109 83% 84% 84% 86% 90% 83% 84% 84% 86% 90% Agenda Item #16 Jun 2025Page 71 of 102
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Table 3-3 –Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Rainfall Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type Total Number of
Assets
Rainfall Inundation
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR
Existing
Conditions
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR
Existing
Conditions
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2050
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2050
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int
2050
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int
2050
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2080
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int-
Low 2080
Rainfall 100-
YR/24-HR Int
2080
Rainfall 500-
YR/24-HR Int
2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25%
Conservation Lands 5 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 10% 0% 20% 0% 20%
Historical Cultural Site 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Lift Stations 33 30% 42% 42% 42% 42% 45% 42% 48% 42% 48%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 67% 33% 67%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Parks 16 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 56% 56%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 25% 0% 25% 25% 25%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 45% 54% 53% 55% 53% 57% 55% 58% 55% 58%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 67% 0% 100%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 66% 63% 66% 63% 66%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 17%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 33%
Wetlands 109 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% Agenda Item #16 Jun 2025Page 72 of 102
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Table 3-4 – Percentage of Assets Flooded by Asset Type for Surge Flooding Scenarios
Asset Type Total Number of
Assets
Storm Surge Flooding (SWEL)
Storm Surge 100-YR Existing Conditions Storm Surge 100-YR Int-Low 2050 Storm Surge 100-YR Int 2050 Storm Surge 100-YR Int-Low 2080 Storm Surge 100-YR Int 2080
Affordable Public Housing 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colleges and Universities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Community Centers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Conservation Lands 5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Day Cares 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Debris Management Sites 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disaster Recovery Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Emergency Operation Centers 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fire Stations 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Health Care Facilities 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Historical Cultural Site 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Law Enforcement Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lift Stations 33 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Local Government Facilities 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logistical Staging Areas 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Parks 16 38% 38% 38% 50% 50%
Radio Communications Towers 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Risk Shelter Inventory 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roads 83 13% 20% 24% 34% 47%
Schools 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Solid and Hazardous Waste Facilities 2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Surface Waters 38 50% 58% 58% 58% 61%
Waste Water Facilities 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Supply Wells 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water Treatment Plants 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wetlands 109 84% 87% 87% 87% 88% Agenda Item #16 Jun 2025Page 73 of 102
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Table 3-5 – Ranking of Exposed Roadway Segments
Vulnerability
Rating
Total
Roadway
Length (ft.)High 5,079
MAIN ST A1 949 1 Low High 16,230
MAIN ST A2 517 8 Moderate-High Moderate-High 16,230
MAIN ST A3 184 10 High Moderate 3,253
MAIN ST A4 326 6 Moderate Moderate-Low 10,219
MAIN ST A5 691 9 High Low 15,465
MAIN ST A6 695 7 Moderate-High
MAIN ST A7 684 6 Moderate
MAIN ST A8 696 8 Moderate-High
MAIN ST A9 688 6 Moderate
DUTTON DR B1 650 6 Moderate
DUTTON DR B2 1719 1 Low
CHURCH RD B3 425 8 Moderate-High
CHURCH RD B4 925 10 High
DUTTON DR B5 647 1 Low
LEVY RD C1 244 8 Moderate-High
LEVY RD C2 250 6 Moderate
LEVY RD C3 773 4 Moderate-Low
LEVY RD C4 2165 1 Low
W PLAZA D1 861 1 Low
PLAZA DR E1 443 1 Low
PLAZA DR E2 549 8 Moderate-High
PLAZA DR E3 2427 1 Low
PLAZA DR E4 328 4 Moderate-Low
PLAZA DR E5 624 8 Moderate-High
PLAZA DR E6 2443 10 High
PLAZA DR E7 205 1 Low
SEMINOLE RD F1 3586 1 Low
SEMINOLE RD F10 969 8 Moderate-High
SEMINOLE RD F11 213 5 Moderate
SEMINOLE RD F12 437 4 Moderate-Low
SEMINOLE RD F13 809 8 Moderate-High
SEMINOLE RD F14 931 4 Moderate-Low
SEMINOLE RD F2 836 10 High
SEMINOLE RD F3 1660 1 Low
SEMINOLE RD F4 442 6 Moderate
SEMINOLE RD F5 803 1 Low
SEMINOLE RD F6 761 4 Moderate-Low
SEMINOLE RD F7 909 8 Moderate-High
SEMINOLE RD F8 741 4 Moderate-Low
SEMINOLE RD F9 619 8 Moderate-High
SELVA MARINA DR G1 1045 8 Moderate-High
SELVA MARINA DR G2 2967 4 Moderate-Low
SELVA MARINA DR G3 6103 8 Moderate-High
SELVA MARINA DR G4 2096 4 Moderate-Low
SHERRY DR H1 2025 8 Moderate-High
SHERRY DR H2 1185 4 Moderate-Low
Road Name Segment
ID
Segment
Length
Vulnerability
Rating
Flood
Exposure
Commented [AG1]: Working on update
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Figure 3-1 – Critical Roadway Segment Ranking
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3.4 Public Input
In 2019, the City conducted five public meetings during the development of the Coastal
Vulnerability Assessment to discuss the technical approach to assessing vulnerability, present
the findings of the assessment, and to solicit public comments and concerns relating to current
and future coastal flooding.
The City conducted a public meeting regarding adaptation planning and resiliency on April 6 and
May 24, 2021, to solicit input from the public and respond to comments and concerns. Input from
the City’s Environmental Stewardship Committee was solicited at their April 14 meeting and the
preliminary findings were presented to this group on May 12 and June 2. Input from all meetings
have been incorporated into the plan.
In addition to local City of Atlantic Beach public meetings regarding vulnerability and adaptation
planning, City staff have worked closely with the City of Jacksonville (COJ) and have participated
in the City’s Adaptation Action Area Working Group, Storm Resilience and Infrastructure
Development Review Committee, and the City Council Special Committee on Resilience.
3.5 Local Priorities
The adopted 2021 priorities of the City Commission relating to adaptation planning include the
following:
• Continuing efforts to understand the potential impacts of local SLR and work towards
improving community resilience.
• Update/adopt a long-term capital improvement plan (CIP) to include adaptation, resiliency,
and stormwater.
• Ensure equitable spending throughout the community.
• Continue to foster productive partnerships with neighboring municipalities and state and
local agencies.
The City is also actively working to protect natural areas that may improve storm defenses and
supports the continued reauthorization of the Duval County Shore Protection Project (DCSPP)
that results in periodic beach renourishment.
Commented [AG2]: Insert language about 2025 public
meetings
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Adaptation Strategies
4.1 Range of Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation strategies can be implemented through regulations, policies, or capital projects and
integrated into existing or new plans such as comprehensive plans, post-disaster redevelopment
plans, CIPs, and in this case, adaptation plans. Adaptation strategies can be implemented to
reduce exposure, reduce sensitivity, or increase adaptive capacity. The following sections
describe these adaptation strategy categories and provide examples of general strategies within
each category.
4.1.1 Reducing Exposure
In the context of SLR, exposure refers to the likelihood and timing of when an asset might
experience flooding due to the combination of rising sea levels and extreme rainfall and/or coastal
surge events. The goal of exposure-reducing adaptation strategies is to reduce or eliminate the
chances of an asset experiencing flooding in the future. This requires removing the asset from
the future floodplain or altering the drainage system to limit future water levels during extreme
events. Table 4-1 provides a qualitative comparison of common strategies that could be effective
for reducing asset exposure to future flooding in the City.
Table 4-1 – Comparison of Exposure Reduction Strategies
Adaptation Strategy Implementation
Cost
Environmental
Impact
Societal
Impact
Construction
Feasibility Service Life
Retreat from Vulnerable Areas
Land Acquisition/Conservation
Seawall Improvements
Stormwater Improvements
(i.e., check valves, dams, pumps)
Raising Critical Infrastructure
(i.e., roads, buildings)
Coastal Dune Maintenance
Marsh/Vegetative Buffer
Maintenance
*Note: Green shaded boxes indicate strategies with lower costs, minimal environmental/societal impacts, relatively simple
implementation, or longer service life. Yellow shaded boxes indicate strategies with moderate costs, some environmental/societal
impacts, complex but feasible implementation, or moderate service life. Red shaded boxes indicate strategies with high costs,
significant environmental/societal impacts, extremely complex, or short service life.
4.1.2 Reducing Sensitivity
Sensitivity refers to the degree to which an asset’s functionality is affected by exposure to a
hazard. In this case, the hazard is flooding and the goal of sensitivity -reducing adaptation
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strategies is to reduce or eliminate impacts that flooding has on an asset’s ability to function during
or immediately after flooding. Table 4-2 qualitatively compares common strategies that could be
effective for reducing asset sensitivity to future flooding in the City.
Table 4-2 – Comparison of Sensitivity Reduction Strategies
Adaptation Strategy Implementation
Cost
Environmental
Impact
Societal
Impact
Construction
Feasibility Service Life
Flood Proofing Water/Sewer
Infrastructure
Flood Proofing Emergency
Service Operations (Police,
Fire, City Hall)
Flood Proofing Businesses
and Homes
Flood Recovery Strategies to
Reduce Flood Durations
Backup Power Generation
for Critical Services (Water,
Sewer, Emergency Services)
*Note: Green shaded boxes indicate strategies with lower costs, minimal environmental/societal impacts, relatively simple
implementation, or longer service life. Yellow shaded boxes indicate strategies with moderate costs, some environmental/societal
impacts, complex but feasible implementation, or moderate service life. Red shaded boxes indicate strategies with high costs,
significant environmental/societal impacts, extremely complex, or short service life.
4.1.3 Increasing Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is the ability to adjust to or live with the impacts of SLR and changes in extreme
storm events. The adaptive capacity of existing infrastructure is often fairly confined to its inherent
ability to be adjusted, so increasing the adaptive capacity of existing infrastructure is challenging.
Strategies for increasing the adaptive capacity of a community are forward-looking and involve
policies, regulations, and strategies to enhance the adaptability of a community. The following are
examples of strategies to enhance adaptive capacity:
• Public Outreach and Education – As residents become more aware of future SLR and its
associated flood risks, they will be more likely to support local adaptation efforts and will
have the opportunity to make educated decisions that have positive impacts on the
adaptability of the community.
• CIP – Local governments may choose to consider future flooding risks when developing
projects in their CIP or discourage investment in projects that may be vulnerable to flood
risks. The local government may also discontinue maintenance and repairs to
infrastructure that is repetitively damaged and relocate or retrofit existing infrastructure to
be more flood resilient.
• Pursuing Funding for Adaptation Projects – Implementing adaptation strategies can be
very expensive. Several federal and state grant funding programs exist that can provide
funds for implementing adaptation strategies.
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• Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) – This strategy is meant to limit or reduce
development within vulnerable areas by allowing one property owner to sever
development rights in exchange for compensation from another property owner who would
like their development rights to increase. The receiving area is then allowed to have
increased density or dwelling units per acre. A TDR program serves as an incentive for a
property owner to avoid developing on vulnerable property by providing compensation for
lost privileges.
• Cluster Development – Cluster development encourages developers to concentrate
development in upland/desirable areas on a tract of land while preserving/avoiding
vulnerable areas, which maximizes protection of future structures, preserves vulnerable
areas, and often saves developers money.
• Setbacks and Buffers – Setbacks and buffers are building restrictions that establish a
distance from a boundary line where landowners are prohibited from building structures.
These are regulatory tools that can be established through zoning and floodplain codes
or conservation easements and serve to protect existing or new structures and inhabitants
by allowing inland migration of shorelines and preservation of wetlands, dunes, estuaries,
and other environmentally sensitive areas.
• Conservation Easements – A conservation easement is a strategy used by local
governments for the permanent conservation of private lands by placing a limitation on the
uses and/or allowable amount of development on a property to protect its associated
resources while still allowing the owner to live, retain, and develop the property with limited
use. The easement can apply to all or a portion of a property. Usually, a conservation
easement preserves a portion of property in its natural state.
• Floodplain Regulations – Floodplain regulations are a tool that a coastal community could
amend to impose additional restrictions on development in floodplains above the National
Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) minimum standards, such as use restrictions within the
100-year floodplain areas (only allow limited residential, recreational, or agricultural uses),
and/or impose design requirements in the 500-year floodplain areas that are currently not
required (elevation requirements).
• Building Codes and Standards – Building codes establish minimum requirements for
building construction. Under the Florida Building Code Act, all local codes were replaced
by the Florida Building Code in 2002. However, local governments may adopt more
stringent regulations where local conditions warrant. Additional regulations governing
construction include flood-protection regulations pursuant to NFIP and the state Coastal
Construction Control Line (CCCL) permitting standards. A coastal community may look
into applying flood-resistant code standards to currently unregulated areas that may be
vulnerable to flooding in the future, such as the 500-year floodplain.
• Redevelopment Standards – Redevelopment standards are regulatory tools a community
can use to limit, or even in some cases prohibit, what is allowed to be rebuilt on a property
that has been damaged or destroyed by natural hazards. Communities can limit
redevelopment of repetitive loss structures and/or other storm-damaged structures in
highly vulnerable areas.
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• Real Estate Disclosures – Governmental bodies (e.g., state or local agencies) could
compile data, erosion maps, inundation models, and other relevant information and make
this information accessible to potential property buyers and developers. Governments
could require sellers to disclose to potential buyers that a property is in an area vulnerable
to flooding.
4.2 Focus Areas for Adaptation
Predicted SLR over the next 25 years has a fair degree of certainty and less certainty over a
50-year time horizon. 100-year predictions in SLR are extremely uncertain. From a planning
perspective and given increasing uncertainty over time, the City’s adaptation planning efforts will
focus on the 25-year time horizon with consideration given to the 50-year predictions. Based on
the exposure and sensitivity analyses over these timeframes , the focus areas identified for
adaptation planning are provided below.
4.2.1 Citywide
The City of Atlantic Beach is considered by COJ to be in an AAA. As discussed in Section 2.1,
the 2011 Comprehensive Planning Act authorized localities to designate AAAs, which are
locations that experience coastal flooding due to extreme high tides and storm surge and that are
vulnerable to the related impacts of rising sea levels. COJ opted to define AAAs in Duval County
as areas that are subject to inundation from a 500-year flood event or a Category 3 hurricane
storm surge. The NOAA predicts that virtually all of the City of Atlantic Beach could be inundated
by a Category 3 storm; hence, the entire city is considered to be in an AAA.
Although no return interval is assigned to a Category 3 storm, unlike a 100-year flood event, the
entire community can still be considered to have potential exposure. Accordingly, all of the City
of Atlantic Beach is considered to be a focus area for adaptation primarily from a planning and
policy perspective.
4.2.2 Areas West of Mayport Road
As indicated by the future 100-year flood maps shown in Figure 4.2, many residential and
commercial areas west of Mayport Road are predicted to be impacted from rising sea levels.
These areas are expected to be subject to the chronic condition of nuisance flooding as well an
increasing likelihood of inundation due to storm surge and rainfall-induced flooding during a
100-year storm event. Figure 4-2 depicts the expected extent of flooding due to the 100-year
storm event in 2044.
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Figure 4-1 – 2044 Nuisance and 100-Year Storm Flooding West of Mayport Road
4.2.3 Major Drainageways
East of Mayport Road, minimizing the extent and duration of flood events depends largely on the
ability of the major drainageways to manage the stormwater runoff discharging into them.
Adaptation measures will be required to ensure that the major drainageways function properly
and will not be adversely impacted by rising sea levels.
Figure 4-2 shows that the major drainageways serving the City include Hopkins Creek, Sherman
Canal, Puckett Creek, and Sherman Creek.
Commented [AG3]: Insert updated map
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Figure 4-2 – Major Drainageways
4.2.4 Roadways
As discussed in Section 3, many of the major ingress and egress routes from the City may be
affected by rising sea levels. These roadways will be considered a focus area for adaptation
planning. The two busiest roads in the City are Mayport Road and Atlantic Boulevard. Both
roadways are managed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), not the City of
Atlantic Beach.
4.2.5 Critical Utility Infrastructure
Critical infrastructure that will be a focus area for adaptation planning to include numerous lift
stations, two of the City’s water plants, and four potable water wells.
4.2.6 Critical Public Facilities
Public facilities expected to be exposed to future flooding conditions will also be focus areas for
adaptation planning efforts. These include City Hall, the Police and Fire Departments, and several
of the City’s community centers.
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4.3 Current Strategies and Existing Regulations
Assessing existing strategies and regulations is recommended by the FDEP before identifying
adaptation strategies and recommendations. This includes looking at the City’s current plans,
development regulations, and other initiatives that may be used or modified for adaptation
purposes.
4.3.1 Existing Plans
Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
This assessment used existing and projected conditions to model 25-, 50-, and 100-year
scenarios for SLR and future flood hazards. The models were then used to identify
vulnerable areas, properties, and infrastructure.
2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update
This update built on the previous 1995, 2002, and 2012 plans and modeled existing and
projected hydrologic conditions within the City and includes recommended stormwater
improvement projects in identified locations.
2045 Comprehensive Plan
In 2019, the City updated the Comprehensive Plan to comply with the Peril of Flood
statute, which required local governments to incorporate SLR planning into their
redevelopment policies. In addition, the plan contains numerous goals, objectives, and
policies related to adaptation.
4.3.2 Existing Development Regulations
Finished Floor Elevation (FFE)
All lots and building sites shall be developed so that habitable space is constructed at a
minimum FFE of 8.5 feet above mean sea level or with 2.5 feet of freeboard (above the
base flood elevation), whichever is greater.
Base Flood Elevations
Development that encroaches into a regulated floodway must demonstrate that the
development will not cause any increase in base flood elevations.
Floodplain Storage
Development within the 100-year floodplain must create storage onsite to mitigate for any
filling of volume onsite to accomplish no net loss of storage.
Onsite Storage of Stormwater
Development that exceeds 50 percent of the market value of all improvements or which
increases the impervious surface on a site by more than 250 square feet must provide
onsite storage of stormwater.
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Impervious Surface Area
In 2019, the maximum impervious surface area for properties within residential zoning
districts was reduced from 50 to 45 percent.
Grading and Drainage
All development sites must be graded so that stormwater drains to the adjacent street,
existing natural element, or a City drainage structure after meeting on-site stormwater
storage requirements. Except as required to meet coastal construction codes or as
required to meet applicable flood zone or stormwater regulations, the elevation or
topography of a development site shall not be altered.
Wetland Mitigation
Any impacted wetlands on a development site must be replaced elsewhere on the site or
within the City so that no net loss of jurisdictional wetlands occurs within the City.
Wetland Buffer
New development must maintain a 50-foot buffer from jurisdictional wetlands adjacent to
water bodies connected to the Intracoastal Waterway and a 25-foot buffer from other
jurisdictional wetlands. This buffer is reduced to 25 feet for single-family lots platted
before 2002.
Special Planned Area (SPA)
An SPA zoning district may be applied for or required by the City where a proposed
development has unique characteristics or special environmental features. This zoning
district provides flexibility and creates opportunities for preservation (i.e., cluster
development).
4.3.3 Current Initiatives
Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) Community Rating System (CRS)
The City participates in the CRS program, which provides reductions in flood insurance
premiums for cities that implement activities that exceed the minimum criteria for FEMA’s
NFIP.
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Certification
The City of Atlantic Beach became LEED for Cities certified in 2019. Cities with this
certification aim to ensure a more sustainable future by creating a healthier environment.
Urban Forestry
Since 2019, over 450 trees have been planted in public spaces throughout the City.
Additionally, the City is working to strengthen its tree protection ordinance to preserve and
regenerate the urban canopy.
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Street Sweeping and Stormwater Inlet Cleaning
Street sweeping and inlet cleaning help reduce localized flooding by removing debris that
blocks drainage infrastructure.
Vulnerable Property Acquisition
Multiple properties have been purchased by the City over the years for preservation
purposes including the Tide Views, Dutton Island, and River Branch Preserves. Recently,
the City purchased Selva Preserve and an approximately 2-acre parcel west of Lily Street
providing preservation of wetlands, maintenance of stormwater storage capacity, and
storm-surge protection for adjacent properties.
Duval County Shore Protection Project (DCSPP)
The DCSPP, which is the federal program established for beach renourishment, is critical
to maintenance and restoration of beach and dune systems, providing protection to the
Atlantic Ocean coastline in Duval County.
4.4 Recommended Strategies for Focus Areas
The following adaptation strategies have been developed for the identified vulnerable focus areas
within the study area. These recommendations and associated timeframes are based on best
available information and shall be updated as new information becomes available or additional
adaptation strategies are identified.
4.4.1 Citywide
The following relate to recommended changes and updates of policies, ordinances, etc. to better
help the City manage and adapt to changing vulnerability and flooding potential throughout the
City. These apply to the chronic stressor of SLR and the acute stressor of a major storm event.
➢ Ensure that every CIP implemented by the City is examined through the lens of resilience.
➢ Review building and zoning codes of other Florida cities and counties for resilience and
adaptation-related elements and determine if the City of Atlantic Beach’s building and
zoning codes should be updated to reflect similar elements.
➢ Craft policies that do not disincentivize property owners from making repairs and
renovations for resiliency purposes because such repairs may currently trigger a
requirement for full compliance with all current codes.
➢ Reinforce the value of trees for absorbing stormwater runoff.
➢ Explore ways to disclose flood zone and prior flooding information on real estate
transactions and lease agreements.
➢ Establish education and public engagement tools such as user-friendly websites,
newsletters, social media platforms, and resource guides to reach diverse audiences.
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➢ Establish a community relief center to enable and provide assistance to citizens to deal
with stressors related to water inundation.
➢ Keep shorelines natural by implementing a 6-foot low-maintenance buffer (no mowing,
fertilizer, pesticide, or herbicide application) along public lands adjacent to waterways and
drainage ditches. This should also be encouraged along waterways on private property
through education and outreach.
➢ Partner with COJ, Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), and the US Army Corps of
Engineers (USACE) to develop a program for the beneficial reuse of dredged material
through Thin Layer Placement (TLP), or other methods of strategic placement. This may
be especially important to the City’s marsh system. TLP may help to build the marsh up
ahead of SLR and prevent marsh areas from converting to open waters, resulting in a
reduction of wave energy reaching the upland shoreline.
➢ Work with COJ to establish an outreach program to provide voluntary property vulnerability
assessments in vulnerable areas of the City. Provide property owners with suggested
adaptation actions they may wish to undertake to increase resiliency to SLR, storm surge,
and extreme tides while simultaneously providing habitat and water-quality benefits.
➢ Map riparian areas subjected to invasive species (i.e., Brazilian Pepper), develop a
program to eradicate species on public property, and provide guidance to owners of
infested private properties. Invasive species often do not provide the degree of protection
from erosion and wave attenuation that native species do.
➢ Ensure that the DCSPP remains funded and provides for continuous beach and dune
restoration on an as-needed basis.
➢ Incorporate Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Green Streets concepts such as
green infrastructure and drainage into medians, sidewalks, and landscaped areas during
the planning and design of roadway transportation projects.
➢ Seek state and federal assistance, when available, to help pay for removing remaining
septic tanks on the west side of the City, and work with COJ for removing septic tanks
within the Public Utilities service area that fall outside the City’s limits.
➢ Incentivize low-impact design (LID) practices. LID can include rain gardens, recessed
planting beds, bio-swales, green roofs, or simply planning for a greater pervious surface
in site design.
➢ Review minimum off-street parking requirements. Today, off-street parking minimums for
residential and commercial developments artificially inflate the number of parking spaces;
therefore, impervious surface areas must be developed. This contributes to the amount of
stormwater runoff generated from developments and increases flooding potential,
especially in areas that do not have space to add stormwater ponds.
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➢ Consider revising minimum FFEs for areas in a 500-year flood zone on the current FEMA
Flood Insurance Rate Map. The extents of a 500-year flood event are similar to the
predicted extents of a 100-year flood event in 2044. Minimum FFEs in these areas could
be revised to 2.5 feet above the nearest adjacent 100-year base flood elevation to provide
for future protection. Building height limitations in these areas could also be revised to be
based on the required FFE, similar to Sec. 24-81(n)(a). The current minimum FFE in an
area impacted by a 100-year flood event (Special Flood Hazard Area) is 2.5 feet above
the base flood elevation.
These recommendations are primarily near-term recommendations (i.e., within 12 months). A
specific implementation schedule should be developed to further prioritize, evaluate, refine, and
consider for implementation.
4.4.2 Areas West of Mayport Road
As verified by the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment, the marsh-facing areas west of Mayport
Road will be particularly vulnerable to flooding events given higher sea levels in the future. Many
residents in this area are already impacted by nuisance flooding that is projected to get worse.
➢ Commission a study within the next 12 to 36 months to evaluate the most cost-effective
means of protecting this area of the City. This evaluation should result in the development
of a 25-year plan for managing nuisance flooding and storm surge in this area to maximize
protection of affected residential and commercial properties, critical facilities, and
infrastructure and roadways. The plan shall include implementation triggers, expected
timeframes, and probable costs for proposed improvements.
Improvements that are expected to be evaluated include but are not limited to the
following:
o Strategically raising centerline road elevations to protect inland properties.
o Installing check valves in drainage ditches to prevent storm surges from entering
inland areas.
o Extending water and sewer utilities where needed to ensure continuity of service.
o Raising vulnerable structures to a safe elevation.
o Identifying and conserving properties strategically located along the marsh edge to
maintain or develop the ability to reduce wave impacts on the immediately adjacent
upland areas.
o Evaluate the rate and extent of marsh erosion and develop plans to stem the loss of
marsh and commensurate loss of storm protection benefits.
➢ Complete a marsh baseline study within the next 12 months. Little quantitative information
is available regarding the health of the marsh system within the City limits. As part of this
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effort, the City should complete a marsh baseline study to determine the current condition,
extent, and elevation of the marsh so that future changes can be monitored. Periodically
monitoring changes in the marsh will provide valuable information regarding the speed
and extent of local impacts of SLR and will be a useful tool for future adaptation planning.
A screening level review was completed to identify improvement concepts and general locations
that could be considered in future studies for protecting the areas west of Mayport Road.
➢ Raise Camelia Street between 1st Street and 6th Street, 6th Street between Camelia
Street and Jasmine Street, and Jasmine Street from 6th Street to approximately 350 feet
north of 6th Street out of the 100-year surge floodplain. This concept may require
upsizing of the stormwater collection system and includes installing backflow prevention
systems on the stormwater outfalls. This improvement could provide protection for the
properties and City roadways east of Camelia Street from a 100-year storm surge flood
event.
➢ Raise 6th Street between Jasmine Street and Begonia Street and Begonia Street from
6th Street to approximately 450 feet north of 6th Street above the projected 2050 high-tide
flood elevation. This improvement could protect Begonia Street and properties east of
Begonia Street from future high-tide/nuisance flooding.
➢ Construct a backflow prevention system and stormwater pump station in the ditch in the
open right-of-way on Camelia Street between 9th Street and 14th Street. This system
could protect the City roadways and properties east of Camelia Street from the 100-year
storm surge flood event.
➢ Raise Main Street between 9th Street and 14th Street out of the 100-year storm surge
elevation and install backflow prevention on the cross-culverts in the ditch under main
street. This improvement may require up-sizing the cross-culverts under Main Street to
ensure that rainfall induced flooding in the area is not worsened. This improvement could
protect Main Street and the City roadways and properties east of Main Street from the
100-year storm surge.
➢ Raise West Plaza Street west of Tulip Street and Gladiola Street above the high-
tide/nuisance flood elevation. This improvement could reduce the amount of nuisance
flooding experienced on these roadways and improve ingress/egress for residents
during flood conditions.
➢ Raise West Plaza Street between Tulip Street and Begonia Street and Tulip Street from
West Plaza Street to approximately 200 feet south of West Plaza Street above the high-
tide/nuisance flood elevation. This improvement could reduce the amount of nuisance
flooding experienced on these roadways and improve ingress/egress for residents
during flood conditions.
4.4.3 Major Drainageways
Of significant importance to the City of Atlantic Beach residents east of Mayport Road is the
performance of the major drainageways during severe storm events. Performance of these
systems is crucial regarding limiting the extent and duration of a flooding event. The City
Commented [AG4]: Draft language from Jones Edmunds
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completed a Stormwater Master Plan Update in 2018 and staff have been implementing the
recommendations in this plan as funding allows.
The Coastal Vulnerability Assessment resulted in the prediction of future flooding associated with
SLR and continued redevelopment within the City. This work was completed subsequent to the
Stormwater Master Plan Update; therefore, the potential impacts from SLR are not wholly
reflected in the recommended CIP resulting from the Stormwater Master Plan Update:
➢ Within the next 12 months, initiate a study to evaluate the major drainageway projects
included in the current stormwater CIP regarding the increasing flooding due to SLR. This
study should include development of a plan of action to account for these future conditions.
This process will ensure that all major drainage infrastructure projects and improvements
can be adapted to future conditions and will be complementary to potential future projects,
such as stormwater pump stations, that may become necessary as sea level and flooding
conditions change.
➢ Within the next 12 to 36 months, engage a consultant to develop a 50-year plan for
managing the major drainageways to maximize protection of affected residential and
commercial properties, critical facilities, infrastructure, and roadways. This plan should
include a local, COJ, state, and federal agency coordination plan, implementation triggers,
expected timeframes, and probable costs for proposed improvements.
The 2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update and subsequent Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
concluded that the box culvert on SR A1A at Puckett Creek is severely undersized and contributes
to poor performance of the Puckett Creek and Sherman Canal watersheds. This culvert is outside
the City limits and is owned by FDOT; therefore, the City of Atlantic Beach has no jurisdiction over
it. However, the City has initiated discussions with FDOT regarding upsizing the box culvert to
improve drainage. City staff must continue communicating with FDOT and lobbying for the
culvert’s replacement.
Hopkins Creek and Sherman Creek Adaptation Strategies for Future Consideration
Results from the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment show that residential and commercial
properties are vulnerable to widespread rainfall and storm surge driven flooding along Hopkins
Creek and Sherman Creek under existing conditions. Flood conditions on these drainageways
will continue to worsen with rising sea levels and more frequent extreme rainfall events. Large -
scale long-term adaptation strategies will need to be implemented for these drainageways to
reduce existing flood conditions and/or prevent them from worsening in the future.
Hopkins Creek and Sherman Creek are both influenced by tidal and storm surge conditions. To
protect these areas from flooding in the future, the City will likely need to construct backflow
prevention systems with high-capacity stormwater pump stations. Detailed feasibility studies will
be required to identify the exact locations for these systems, how big they will need to be, and
determine how much they will cost to implement. A screening level review was completed for
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this adaptation plan to identify concepts and general locations that could be considered in future
studies for protecting these critical drainageways.
For Hopkins Creek, the following locations and concepts were identified:
➢ Purchase the parcel at 1401 Atlantic Boulevard, demolish the existing structures on the
parcel, and construct a stormwater pond with a pump station. Flow from Hopkins Creek
north of Atlantic Boulevard would be diverted into the pond. Water would exit the pond
through gravity flow under lower tide conditions and be pumped out when tides are
elevated. Construction of a stormwater pond with the pump station provides additional
attenuation volume in the system and will reduce the required pump capacity.
➢ Construct a backflow prevention system on the Hopkins Creek box culverts at Atlantic
Boulevard and construct a high-capacity stormwater pump station on the north side of
Atlantic Boulevard that discharges downstream of the Atlantic Boulevard box culverts.
For Sherman Creek, the following locations and concepts were identified:
➢ Construct a backflow prevention system on the Sherman Creek box culverts at Mayport
Road and construct a high-capacity stormwater pump station on the east side of Mayport
Road that discharges downstream of the Mayport Road box culverts.
➢ Construct a backflow prevention system in the ditch at the north end of Selva Marina
Drive with a stormwater pump station that discharges into the wetland system west of
Selva Marina Drive. Install backflow prevention on the existing stormwater outfall pipes
that discharge into Sherman Creek at Saturiba Drive, Country Club Lane, and 11th
Street. The intent of this system is to provide flood protection for the City east of Selva
Marina Drive.
➢ Construct a backflow prevention system on the box culverts under the entrance of Fleet
Landing at 20th Street with a stormwater pump station that discharges into the wetland
north of the Fleet Landing entrance. This improvement would also require construction of
a flood wall to prevent backflow through Fleet Landing in future conditions 100-year
surge scenarios.
As documented in the 2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update, Hopkins Creek between Atlantic
Boulevard and Plaza has experienced significant and repeated rainfall driven flooding in recent
years. The 2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update identified several stormwa ter system
improvements that the City has been working on implementing as budgets and grant funding has
allowed. This area should continue to be studied to identify additional improvements that could
reduce rainfall driven flooding. A screening level review was completed for this adaptation plan to
identify concepts that could be considered in future studies for reducing rainfall driven flooding in
this area.
➢ Construct a new outfall pipe along Plaza, 12th Street, and Orchid Street to divert
stormwater runoff from Hopkins Creek north of Plaza to the existing stormwater ditch
between 14th Street and 9th Street west of Mayport Road. The existing ditch discharges
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west into the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway and has existing culvert crossings at Hibiscus
Street and Main Street that would likely need to be upsized.
➢ Construct a new outfall pipe from the ditch between Saratoga Circle North and Forrestal
Circle South that discharges west into the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. This would
divert stormwater runoff from the area west of Aquatic Drive between Plaza and Atlantic
Boulevard away from Hopkins Creek.
As sea levels continue to rise, tidally driven nuisance flooding will continue to worsen and
become a problem in lower-lying areas along the Hopkins Creek and Sherman Creek
drainageways. Where feasible, the primary method for reducing the impact of nuisance flooding
is installing backflow prevention on stormwater pipes. A screening level review was completed
to identify locations where backflow prevention could be installed at the downstream ends of
collection system pipes to reduce nuisance flooding under existing and projected future
conditions tidal flooding.
The locations identified for potential backflow prevention on Hopkins Creek are:
➢ The 24-inch outfall pipe on Aquatic Drive located approximately 450 north of the
centerline of Atlantic Boulevard. Aquatic Drive has roadway elevations below the existing
tidal flood elevation. Therefore, tidal flooding could be reduced for existing conditions.
➢ The 29-inch-by-45-inch outfall pipe from Aquatic Drive into the Aquatic Drive pond.
Aquatic Drive has roadway elevations below the existing tidal flood elevation. Therefore,
tidal flooding could be reduced for existing conditions.
➢ The double 24-inch pipes under the entrance road to Lift Station F. Tidal flooding
upstream of the pipes is minimal for existing conditions, but is predicted to increase
significantly by 2050.
➢ The 29-inch-by-45-inch Skate Road outfall pipe between Cutlass Drive and Cavalla
Road that discharges into the Skate Road ditch. Tidal flooding upstream of the pipe is
minimal for existing conditions, but is predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
➢ The 34-inch-by-53-inch Cavalla Road outfall pipe that discharges into the Skate Road
ditch. Tidal flooding upstream of the pipe is minimal for existing conditions, but is
predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
➢ The 38-inch-by-60-inch and 42-inch outfall pipes from the stormwater pond at the
Atlantic Beach Dog Park that discharge into Hopkins Creek. Tidal flooding upstream of
the pipe is minimal for existing conditions, but is predicted to increase significantly b y
2050.
The locations identified for potential backflow prevention on Sherman Creek are:
➢ The 48-inch outfall pipe from Pine Street that discharges into Sherman Creek at the
south end of Howell Park. Tidal flooding upstream of the pipe is minimal for existing
conditions, but is predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
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➢ The 30-inch outfall pipe from the Sevilla Condominiums stormwater pond that
discharges into Sherman Creek. Tidal flooding upstream of the pipe is minimal for
existing conditions, but is predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
➢ The 30-inch outfall pipe at the west end of Saturiba Drive that discharges into Sherman
Creek. Tidal flooding upstream of the pipe is minimal for existing conditions, but is
predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
➢ The 4-foot-by-7-foot box culvert crossing under 20th Street between Brista De Mar Circle
and Garden Lane. Tidal flooding occurs upstream of this culvert on Creekside Circle
under existing conditions and is predicted to increase significantly by 2050.
Alternatively, the City could consider installing backflow prevention measures at larger
downstream culvert crossings in Hopkins Creek and Sherman Creek to reduce tidal and storm
surge driven flooding in the creeks. For Hopkins Creek, installing these measures could be
effective at the box-culvert crossing under Atlantic Boulevard and for Sherman Creek it could be
effective at the Mayport Road box-culvert crossing. Backflow systems considered at these
locations could include amil gates, floating water control weirs, and flap gates, but additional
studies and analysis would be needed to determine the best options and locations .
The Dora Drive and Stanley Road area was identified as flood-prone in the 2018 Stormwater
Master Plan Update. Outfall pipe improvements were proposed in the Master Plan Update for
this area and the City is moving forward with plans to construct the improvements. Since the
Master Plan Update was completed, the City purchased vacant land at the east end of Dora
Drive with the intent of constructing a stormwater pond to further reduce flooding in the area.
The City is currently pursuing grant funding to design and construct the stormwater pond and
should continue moving forward with design and construction as funding allows.
4.4.4 Roadways
The roadways evaluated as part of this effort include major ingress and egress roads within the
City limits, excluding Atlantic Boulevard and Mayport Road, which are controlled by FDOT. The
ranking presented in Section 3.3 provides a roadmap in order of importance regarding each
vulnerable road segment. Recommendations related to these roadway segments are as follows:
➢ Review the current pavement management plan and update it as necessary to reflect the
roadway segment ranking within the next 12 months.
➢ Before repaving or making major improvements to any vulnerable roadway segments,
determine improvements that can be made to increase the roadway segment’s resilience
and ability to function during predicted 2044 100-year flooding conditions.
➢ Evaluate minor arterial roadways on a case-by-case basis to identify potential
improvements resulting in better performance due to chronic and acute flooding
conditions.
➢ Ensure that City staff share vulnerability data with FDOT to help inform their adaptation
planning regarding Atlantic Boulevard and Mayport Road.
Commented [AG5]: Draft language from Jones Edmunds
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The initial planning required to implement these recommendations should commence within
12 months, and these recommendations should be implemented within 24 months or before any
major capital expenditures relating to improvements of any ranked roadway segment.
Based on results from the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment the following roadway segments
were included in the “highest” vulnerability rating category and improvements for reducing their
vulnerability to flooding should be considered:
➢ Selva Marina Drive between Saturiba Drive and Country Club Lane. This section of
roadway is vulnerable to flooding in the existing conditions 100 -year rainfall and storm
surge flood scenarios.
➢ Sherry Drive between 8th Street and 4th Street. This section of roadway is vulnerable to
flooding in the existing conditions 100-year rainfall and storm surge flood scenarios.
➢ Plaza at the Sherman Creek box culvert crossing. This section of roadway is vulnerable
to flooding in the existing conditions 100-year rainfall and storm surge flood scenarios.
Raising the road at this location would require improvements to the Sherman Creek box-
culvert crossing. Improvements to this culvert crossing were recommended in the 2018
Stormwater Master Plan Update.
➢ Seminole Road between Seaspray Avenue and Plaza. This section of roadway is
vulnerable to flooding in the existing conditions 100-year rainfall and storm surge flood
scenarios. Raising the road at this location would require improvements to the Sherman
Creek box-culvert crossing. Improvements to this culvert crossing were recommended in
the 2018 Stormwater Master Plan Update.
➢ Selva Marina Drive from 500-feet north of 20th Street to 500-feet south of 20th Street. This
section of roadway is vulnerable to flooding in the existing conditions 100-year rainfall
and storm surge flood scenarios.
4.4.5 Critical Utility Infrastructure
Vulnerable City-owned critical utility infrastructure within and outside the City limits include sewer
pump stations, potable water plants, and several potable water wells. The Public Utilities
Department shall implement the following recommendations to ensure continuity of service under
all conditions:
➢ Within the next 12 months, retain a consultant to evaluate all identified exposed critical
utility infrastructure with a ranking of 15 or higher to identify improvements required to
protect these assets from expected 100-year event flood levels in 2044. These
improvements shall be implemented within 12 months of completion of the evaluation or
sooner as funding becomes available.
➢ Within the next 24 months, retain a consultant to evaluate all identified exposed critical
utility infrastructure with a ranking of less than 15 to identify improvements required to
protect these assets from expected 100-year event flood levels in 2044. These
Commented [AG6]: Draft language from Jones Edmunds
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improvements shall be implemented within 36 months of completion of the evaluation or
sooner as funding becomes available.
The City has identified and begun modifying and/or raising 14 vulnerable sanitary sewer lift
stations as funding has allowed. The Coastal Vulnerability Assessment identified 10 pump station
with a priority rating of “highest” or “high” that the City should continue to prioritize in their
adaptation efforts. The stations identified in the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment include:
➢ The Courtyards Lift Station.
➢ Lakeside Lift Station.
➢ Lift Station A.
➢ Lift Station B.
➢ Lift Station C.
➢ Lift Station G.
➢ Lift Station L.
➢ Lift Station N.
➢ Mimosa Cove Lift Station.
➢ Buc Master Lift Station.
4.4.6 Critical Public Facilities
Several vulnerable critical public facilities must be addressed to ensure continuity of government
and community services. The City shall implement the following recommendations:
➢ Within the next 12 months, evaluate all identified exposed critical public facilities with a
ranking of 15 or higher to identify improvements required to protect these assets from
expected 100-year event flood levels in 2044. These improvements shall be designed and
implemented as soon as possible after completion of the evaluation.
➢ Within the next 24 months, evaluate all identified exposed critical public facilities with a
ranking of less than 15 to identify improvements required to protect these assets from
expected 100-year event flood levels in 2044. These improvements are to be designed
and scheduled for implementation as funding becomes available.
Commented [AG7]: Add map of Lift station locations
Commented [AG8]: Draft language from Jones Edmunds
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Based on results from the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment sensitivity analysis, City Hall, the
Commission Chamber building, and the Public Safety (fire and police) building should be
prioritized for identifying adaptation needs and strategies to flood proof the facilities. The City has
already implemented improvements at these facilities, but additional studies and improvements
are needed. Relocation of these facilities out of the floodplain could also be considered if city-
owned parcels were available that could accommodate the facilities. This option would cost
considerably more than flood-proofing, but would provide the most protection for these facilities.Commented [AG9]: Draft language from Jones Edmunds
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Recommended Actions
This Preliminary Adaptation Plan is the result of the first iteration of the City’s adaptation planning
process. This Plan contains general recommendations for adaptation strategies to be applied to
exposed areas of the City as well as a recommended implementation schedule. Subsequent
iterations of this living document will be completed after solicitation of public input and will contain
additional objective data, more specific strategies, and updated implementation schedules as
appropriate.
5.1 Summary of Recommended Actions and Schedule
Table 5-1 summarizes the recommendations for adaptation strategies identified in each focus
area with a recommended timeframe for implementation. The timeframes for initiation are based
on the following criteria:
➢ Ongoing ➔Actions currently being undertaken by staff
➢ Immediate ➔ Upon adoption of Adaptation Plan
➢ Near-Term ➔ <12 months
➢ Mid-Term ➔ 12-36 months
➢ Long-Term ➔ 36-48 months
Table 5-1 – Summary of Recommendations and Implementation Schedule
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
Review all capital projects in context of
adaptation Incorporate into project planning procedures Immediate
Building and zoning code review Initiate review process and produce report of
recommended actions Near-Term
Policies to encourage homeowner
resiliency projects Establish policies Mid-Term
Reinforce value of trees for absorbing
runoff
Develop educational materials; coordinate
with COJ efforts Near-Term
Real estate disclosures Initiate discussions with Property Appraiser
and develop approach for implementation Mid-Term
Education and Public Engagement Tools Develop/adapt educational materials Near-Term
Low maintenance buffers on City
property Establish policy Immediate
Marsh restoration partnering w/ COJ,
JAXPORT, USACE
Begin planning, discuss with relevant
agencies, determine funding sources Long-Term
Work with COJ on vulnerability outreach
program
Begin coordination and development of
outreach materials Mid-Term
Invasive species mapping in riparian
areas Complete map and develop eradication plan Near-Term
Maintain federal authorization for beach
renourishment
Maintain contact with USACE, COJ and
FDEP to assure authorization is maintained Ongoing
Commented [AG10]: Working on update to timeframes
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Incorporate EPA Green Streets into
planning & projects Incorporate in to Complete Streets program Near-Term
Seek funding to phase out septic tanks Initiate discussions with COJ, FDEP and
SJRWMD to identify funding opportunities Ongoing
Incentivize LID practices Develop LID guide and update code as
necessary to incentivize Near-Term
Review minimum off-street parking
requirements
Review and update applicable sections of
code Near-Term
Revise minimum FFEs in exposed areas Evaluate impact of change and implement
code change Mid-Term
Table 5-2 – Areas West of Mayport Road Recommended Actions & Schedule
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
25-Year plan for SLR protection Commission evaluation and present options
to the community Mid-Term
Marsh baseline study Commission study Near-Term
Table 5-3 – Major Drainageways Recommended Actions & Schedule
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
Evaluation of current CIPs Initiate review of projects Near-Term
50-year drainage plan Engage consultant to develop 50-year plan;
incorporate findings in to the CIP Long-Term
Table 5-4 – Roadways Recommended Actions & Schedule
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
Rank roads in pavement management
plan
Review & update pavement management
plan Near-Term
Improve resilience of vulnerable
roadways prior to repaving or making
major improvements
Evaluate roadway projects as they arise Ongoing
Minor arterial roadway evaluation Evaluate in response to inspections and
complaints Ongoing
Atlantic Boulevard and Mayport Road
resiliency Coordinate w/ FDOT Ongoing
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Table 5-5 – Critical Utility Infrastructure
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
Evaluate and upgrade exposed
infrastructure w/ ranking >=15
Evaluate and implement recommended
improvements Near-Term
Evaluate and upgrade exposed
infrastructure w/ ranking <15
Evaluate and implement recommended
improvements Mid-Term
Table 5-6 – Critical Public Facilities
Recommendation Action Timeframe for
Initiation
Develop plan for exposed facilities with
ranking >= 15
Complete plan; design and schedule
recommended improvements Near-Term
Develop plan for exposed facilities with
ranking <15
Complete plan; design and schedule
recommended improvements Mid-Term
5.2 Monitoring and Evaluation
This Adaptation Plan is a living document and the recommendations and implementation
schedule contained in the Plan must be routinely visited and updated as necessary. SLR
predictions are subject to change as new information and data become available. These changes
must be incorporated into the exposure and sensitivity analyses to reveal any significant changes
that must be accounted for. This Plan is also expected to be revised as additional data, such as
marsh baseline data, are obtained.
The analyses described in the Coastal Vulnerability Assessment should be revisited every 5 years
at a minimum using the most recent sea levels and SLR predictions available. Subsequent to
updating these analyses, this Adaptation Plan should be revised to add additional adaptation
strategies as necessary and to move projects and actions listed in Section 4.3 to Section 4.4 as
they are implemented or completed.
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References
2015 Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida, Southeast Florida Regional
Climate Change Compact Sea Level Rise Work Group, 2015
Adaptation Action Area Workgroup Report and Recommendations, City of Jacksonville,
November 2019
City of Atlantic Beach Coastal Vulnerability Assessment, Revision April 2021
City Council Special Committee on Resiliency Final Report, City of Jacksonville, April 2021
City of Jacksonville Storm Resiliency and Infrastructure Development Review Committee Final
Presentation, June 25, 2019
Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, U.S. Global Change
Research Program, 2017
Florida Adaptation Planning Guidebook, FDEP, June 2018
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the U.S., NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-
OPS 083, 2017
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1
National Climate Assessment, 2012
Incorporating Sea Level Changes in Civil Works Programs, USACE Engineer Regulation
(ER) 1100-2-8162, 2013
NOAA Tides & Currents – Water Levels (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/)
Agenda Item #
16 Jun 2025
Page 100 of 102
Phase 1 Adaptation Plan
City of Atlantic Beach
Appendix A
Inundation Scenarios and Maps
Inundation scenarios and maps have been moved online as interactive maps for ease of access
and viewing. This information can be accessed through the following link:
Resiliency and Adaptation - Current and Future Flood Mapping
Agenda Item #
16 Jun 2025
Page 101 of 102
Phase 1 Adaptation Plan
City of Atlantic Beach
Appendix B
Public Workshop Comments
No public comments have been received to date. As this is a living document that will be
updated often as additional information becomes available, comments received from
planned public meetings will be incorporated as appropriate in to the document and will be
added to this appendix.
Agenda Item #
16 Jun 2025
Page 102 of 102